47% of Pinoys see ‘no-el’ violence

Nearly half of Filipinos believe violence would erupt if the May 2010 elections are cancelled or postponed, according to a survey.

Pulse Asia in its October 2008 Ulat ng Bayan survey said that “near to small majorities” (47 percent to 57 percent) in Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the Visayas and Classes A, B, C and D are of the opinion that trouble will result from the cancellation or postponement of the general elections.

In Mindanao, 38 percent either share this view or express a contrary opinion while in Class E, 39 percent see trouble ensuing if the elections are not held as scheduled.

Thirty-six percent are ambivalent on the issue, Pulse Asia said.

It said 30 percent of Filipinos cannot say whether the elections, when national positions including the presidency will be filled, will not push through. Twelve percent think there is a small or no possibility at all that this scenario will materialize.

Indecision on this matter is more pronounced in the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, Mindanao, and Classes D and E (29 percent to 34 percent) relative to Metro Manila and Class ABC (18 percent to 21 percent), it said.

The percentages of those who think there is a small possibility of trouble occurring range from eight percent in Mindanao to 15 percent in Metro Manila. the survey firm said.

On the other hand, the survey found almost the same percentages of Filipinos either do not think trouble will occur if the May 2010 elections are not held or are ambivalent on the matter (24 percent versus 29 percent).

Indecision levels range from 21 percent in Metro Manila to 36 percent in Class E while levels of disagreement vary from 20 percent in the rest of Luzon to 38 percent in Mindanao, Pulse Asia said.

However, interest in the elections among adults is running high, according to the survey.

Nine in 10 Filipino adults or 90 percent are interested in the elections in 2010, the latest Pulse Asia survey showed.

Eighty-seven percent are likely to vote in next year’s polls.

Pulse Asia also found “very high” interest in the 2010 elections across all geographic areas and socio-economic classes.

The non-commissioned survey, fielded over Oct. 14 to 27, used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 representative adults aged 18 years old and above.

“Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, overwhelming majorities express interest in the May 2010 elections (83 percent to 94 percent) and say that they are likely to vote (84 percent to 92 percent),” Pulse Asia said.

In contrast, one out of every 10 Filipinos (10 percent) is still undecided about voting in the May 2010 elections.

The same percentage is either disinterested or unable to say whether or not he is interested in the elections, Pulse Asia said.

The survey also showed nearly six in 10 Filipinos or 59 percent believe that it is highly likely that the May 2010 elections will be held as scheduled.

Meanwhile, 53 percent to 67 percent of Filipinos across geographic areas and socio-economic classes say there is a big possibility that the May 2010 elections will push through.

Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a plus or minus three percent error margin at the 95 percent confidence level.

‘No LDP senatorial list yet’

In another development, members of the Liberal Party (LP) maintaining alliance with Environment Secretary Lito Atienza yesterday disputed the claims of party national chairman Franklin Drilon about a list of senatorial candidates, which they supposedly plan to field in the upcoming 2010 elections.

LP director general Eli Quinto denounced Drilon for making “a major announcement without party consultations.”

“This was Drilon up to his old habits again of speaking unilaterally for the LP,” Quinto said. “Once again, he’s saying things in behalf of the party without consulting its leaders.”

“It’s almost like back in 2005, when he said the LP, by unanimous decision wants President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to resign, when the majority of its leaders were in support of her,” Quinto also said.

Meanwhile, the Kabataang Liberal ng Pilipinas (KALIPI) called on leaders of the LP to come together in a formal gathering to resolve the party’s three-year-old “leadership crisis.”

“This has gone on for so long, and it imperils the chances of the party to get back on its footing with the elections next year,” Caloocan Rep. Mitzi Cajayon, president of KALIPI said.

“The party’s leaders have to sit down and decide, using the formal rules of the party itself, who our leaders are, in a free and fair contest. And we don’t see why it’s such a bother for the party’s leaders to give out a call for a national convention to put this issue to rest once and for all.”

The LP rift came about when the Drilon-led LP members declared that the political party was calling for the removal of President Arroyo in July 2005  –- Helen Flores with Katherine Adraneda, Philippine Star