The Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) is keeping its bleak economic growth projection for the Philippines this year despite what it termed as a surprising gross domestic product (GDP) growth last year.
UBS expects the Philippine economy to grow by just 1.8 percent due to the impact of the global financial turmoil.
The investment bank’s GDP growth projection is slower than the government’s official GDP growth projection of 3.7 percent to 4.7 percent for the year, revised downward by the interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) from the official forecast of 6.1 percent to 7.1 percent.
“Although well below the trend of the last few years, this is a favorable outcome in the face of a likely outright contraction in the global economy,” UBS said.
The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) has reported that the economy grew by 4.6 percent in 2008 or within the government’s projection of 4.1 percent to 4.8 percent but significantly slower than the 7.2 percent recorded in 2007. In the fourth quarter of the year, economy grew 4.5 percent.
UBS, in its latest report on the Philippines, said the 2008 economic figures “surprised positively.”
Despite this, UBS said it is maintaining its 1.8-percent GDP growth projection for the Philippines for 2009 as it still needs to see more evidence that the economy is indeed resilient to external shocks such as the ongoing financial turmoil around the globe.
UBS said that the Philippines is very much exposed to global trade, financial market and sentiment shifts given its reliance on exports and exported labor.
It also expects dollar remittances from Filipinos abroad to slow down.
“Layoffs are becoming widespread regionally and we expect a decline in dollar remittances during 2009,” UBS said.
With the expected slower economic growth for the Philippines, UBS expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to continue easing monetary policy this year.
“We look for policy rates to fall to at least 4.5 percent and for the fiscal deficit to surpass 1.5 percent of GDP in 2009,” UBS said.
Last Thursday, monetary authorities cut the overnight borrowing rate by 50 basis points to five percent.–Iris C. Gonzales, Philippine Star
September 18 –
International Equal Pay Day
“Increase wages now,
more than other cost items.
For widespread, practical equality!”
Invoke Article 33 of the ILO Constitution
against the military junta in Myanmar
to carry out the recommendations of the 2021 ILO Commission of Inquiry
against serious violations of protocols of
Forced Labour and Freedom of Association.
Accept the National Unity Government (NUG)
of Myanmar. Reject Military!
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September –
5 Sept – Intl Day of Charity
7 Sept – Intl Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies
8 Sept – International Literacy Day
12 Sept – United Nations Day for South-South Cooperation
15 Sept – International Day of Democracy
16 Sept – International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer
17 Sept – World Patient Safety Day
18 Sept – International Equal Pay Day
21 Sept – International Day of Peace
26 Sept – International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
27 Sept – World Tourism Day
28 Sept – International Day for Universal Access to Information
29 Sept – International Day of Awareness of Food Loss and Waste
30 Sept – World Maritime Day
Monthly Observances:
Health, Safety and Sanitation Month
National Clean-up Month
Civil Service Month
National Peace Consciousness Month
Social Security Month
Rule of Law Month
National Teachers’ Month (Sept 5-Oct 4)
Weekly Observances:
Sept 17 – 23:
World Clean and Green Week
Week 2: Education Week
Week 4: Medicine Week
Last Week: National Family Week
Daily Observances:
Third Saturday:
International Coastal Clean-up Day
Third Monday: World Health Day
Last Friday: National Maritime Day
Sept 8: National Literacy Day
Sept 15: Philippine Medicine Day
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