ADB warns Southeast Asia vs economic damage of climate change

MANILA, Philippines – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned Southeast Asian nations to take timely action to adapt to climate change because the “business as usual” attitude of the world could result in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines experiencing combined damage equivalent to almost 7 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) every year by the end of this century.

The ADB reported that the damage that climate change could create could be worse than the current financial crisis.

Southeast Asia is among the regions most vulnerable to climate change and the benefits of taking early action against climate change far outweigh the costs, the ADB said.

The ADB said Southeast Asian nations should address the dual threats of climate change and the global financial crisis by introducing green stimulus programs – as part of larger stimulus packages – that can simultaneously strengthen economies, create jobs, reduce poverty, protect vulnerable communities and lower emissions.

“Climate change seriously threatens Southeast Asia’s families, food supplies and financial prosperity, and regrettably the worst is yet to come,” said Ursula Schaefer-Preuss, vice president for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development of ADB.

“With the world mired in the current financial crisis, climate change risks being pushed down the policy agenda,” she added. “If Southeast Asian nations delay action on climate change, their economies and people will ultimately suffer.”

The ADB study, “The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review,” is a result of the reviews of previous studies, impact assessment models and extensive consultations with national and regional climate change experts. It examines climate change challenges facing Southeast Asian nations, both now and in the future.

The study was simultaneously launched yesterday in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam. The main launch of the ADB report was made the other day in Thailand.

The study showed that without further mitigation or adaptation initiatives, the four countries are likely to suffer a mean loss of 2.2 percent of GDP by 2100 on an annual basis, if only market impact (mainly related to agriculture and coastal zones) is considered.

The study, however, also noted that the mean impact could even be dramatically worse, equivalent to 5.7 percent of GDP each year by 2100, if non-market impact (mainly related to health and ecosystems) is included; and 6.7 percent if catastrophic risks are also considered.

Rice production will decline because of climate change, threatening food security, while rising sea levels will force the relocation of millions of residents in coastal communities and islands, as more people are likely to die from thermal stress, malaria, dengue and other diseases.–Katherine Adraneda, Philippine Star