War over water

There is more than enough water in the world to quench the thirst of mankind many times over. Yet, an Asia Society report released this April warns an emerging water crisis could trigger security problems in Asia. In other words, war could break out between provinces or regions in one country, or between Asian nations, over water.

“The global demand for freshwater is soaring as supply is becoming more uncertain,” says the report, “Asia’s Next Challenge: Securing the Region’s Water Future.”

The report adds a security dimension to Asia’s emerging water crisis. Security encompasses individual physical safety, livelihoods, health and human welfare, as well as a realization of the cooperative potential between nation-states and sub-national jurisdictions.

The report also draws attention to some of the most significant current and future water-related challenges facing Asia—from water disputes involving hostile states such as India and Pakistan to water conflicts in China’s villages and provinces resulting from agricultural and industrial pollution, and from the alarming rise in waterborne diseases, especially among children, in Indonesia attributable to inadequate wastewater facilities to the negative impact that climate change will have on Asia’s glaciers, which for many countries are the primary freshwater source.

Whether the water problem is one of quality or quantity or the result of climate change, the Asia Society points out that “hydropolitics is likely to be a growing force in Asian security that will require a broader understanding of and strengthened institutional capacities for water governance.”

Traditional tools of national defense cannot address water problems. Neither should the problem be viewed from the environmental point of view.

The US National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends

2025” report has forecast that “cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to become more difficult within and between states” in Asia.

The Asia Society takes off from the 2007 ADB report, “Asian Water Development Outlook” which stressed that most of Asia’s water problems are not because of a shortage but because of poor water governance. Mismanagement, by both the government and the people using water.

“As population growth and urbanization rates in Asia rise rapidly, stress on the region’s water resources is intensifying. Climate change is expected to worsen the situation significantly,” the Asia Society paper warns.

The report says: “Reduced access to freshwater will lead to a cascading set of consequences, including impaired food production, the loss of livelihood security, large-scale migration within and across borders, and increased economic and geopolitical tensions and instabilities. Over time, these effects will have a profound impact on security throughout the region.”

The report highlights the significance of water as a source of livelihoods, a vector of pathogens, a potent force behind extreme events and natural disasters, and also a mechanism for cooperation among governments and communities.

Today, one out of six people—more than a billion—does not have adequate access to safe water, the group notes.

The United Nations projects that by 2025, half of the countries worldwide will face water stress or outright shortages. By 2050, as many as three out of four people around the globe could be affected by water scarcity.

Water-related problems are particularly acute in Asia. Although Asia is home to more than half of the world’s population, it has less freshwater—3,920 cubic meters per person per year—than any continent other than Antarctica.

Almost two-thirds of global population growth is occurring in Asia, where the population is expected to increase by nearly 500 million people within the next 10 years. Asia’s rural population will remain almost the same between now and 2025, but the urban population is likely to increase by a staggering 60 percent.

The report recommends:

• “Raise the profile of water security on the agendas of national governments in Asia . . . to strengthen capacities to engage in preventive diplomacy focused on water and start setting policies and making investments in support of infrastructure for water conservation and management.”

• “Include water in security policy planning.”

• “Encourage investment in water management technologies,” including incentives to increase developing-country adoption of, and private-sector investment in, technologies that advance water security, and low-tech approaches, such as improved methods to desalinate water and low-cost drip irrigation.

• Strengthen public and private-sector partnerships “to ensure broad and equitable ownership of water resources” and draw on the experiences and expertise of “local leaders . . . who are advancing sustainable water management practices and models of mediation and conflict resolution to address water-related disputes.”

• “Address the emerging water crisis through a post-2012 climate agreement.”

• “Utilize the intergovernmental panel on climate change data on water and climate change to develop early warning systems.

• Expand the water financing partnership facility initiated by the Asian Development Bank.–Tony Lopez, Manila Times

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