MANILA, Philippines–With the global recession deepening at an unprecedented pace, the International Labor Organization has predicted that the number of unemployed in Asia will grow between 9 million and 26 million this year.
This means that the number of jobless workers in the region could top 112.2 million, the ILO said.
The United Nations agency said the number of unemployed worldwide is expected to hit over 230 million as the crisis continues to hit many developing economies and recovery seems to be far off.
According to the ILO, the downturn “has been unprecedented, both in terms of speed, magnitude, and geographic scope.”
“The current contraction forecast for 2009 represents the deepest post-World War II recession and would be the only negative global growth rate measured in the IMF database, which spans back to 1980,” it added.
The new data came from a May 2009 ILO update, which followed up on the three scenarios of unemployment contained in the January 2009 report.
According to the May report, the chances that the most optimistic scenario, an increase of 21 million jobless, would occur is “now rather small”.
The ILO said the worst-case scenarios that the global unemployment would rise by 31-50 million is likely to happen.
The May 2009 data forecasts that the total number of people unemployed worldwide in 2009 would be between 210 million and 239 million (or between 6.5 and 7.4 percent of the total number of the global workforce.)
In Southeast Asia, the ILO said it expects an economic contraction of 0.7% as the economies of Singapore and Malaysia are predicted to decline by 10% and 7% respectively. It also noted that Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia’s export industries declined by more than 30% on year-on-year figures.
In South East Asia and the Pacific, the ILO said the crisis would mean that 16 to 18 million would lose their jobs.
Because of the speed that the recession has spread, the ILO said the poor and the vulnerable sectors of society would bear the brunt of the financial crisis.
“Given the unprecedented depth of this economic crisis we must be particularly concerned about the vulnerable and the poor,” said Gyorgy Sziraczki, Senior Economist at the ILO’s Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.
According to the ILO’s most pessimistic projections, the number of people working in Asia Pacific but living in households that survive on less than US$1.25 per person per day could rise to 589 million.
The ILO official urged governments to invest in projects that would generate jobs that would give all demographics a chance for decent jobs.
“To ensure that the recovery is as quick and inclusive as possible governments should take this opportunity to invest in their labor force, through things like skills training, health and social protection,” Sziraczki said.
Next month, the ILO will hold an International Labor Conference in Geneva to discuss the effects of the crisis and draft responses to it to ensure that the most vulnerable sectors get their share of the recovery efforts.–Kristine L. Alave, Philippine Daily Inquirer
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