IMF fears economic impact of deadly flu

TOKYO: The global spread of swine flu could have “notable effects” on the world economy, a senior IMF official said Monday, warning that the economic crisis was far from over.

John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said the risks from the new type of flu “are hard to predict as it is unknown, as well as regarding its spread and its mortality.”

“But even so, it could have notable effects,” he said.

“Hopefully the impact will turn out to be quite modest and contained. But in the wake of the avian flu threat a few years ago, very extensive contingency plans were put in place regarding, for example, operations of the financial sector.”

As for the global economic downturn, it is “far from over,” he said in a speech here, suggesting that many Asian nations have room to cut interest rates further to spur a recovery in their economies.

World health assembly

The World Health Organization’s annual assembly opened in Geneva on Monday, with the specter of a global flu pandemic hanging over the gathering amid a sharp spike in swine flu infections in Japan.

“Issues to be discussed at the WHA include pandemic influenza preparedness, sharing of influenza viruses, access to vaccines and other benefits, and implementation of the International Health Regulations . . .” the WHO said in a statement ahead of the annual gathering attended by delegates from all 193 members.

Other issues to be discussed include climate change and health, primary healthcare, monitoring of the achievement of the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), social determinants of health, and so on.

The WHA—the World Health Assembly—is the supreme decision-making body of the World Health Organization (WHO). It is usually held in Geneva in May and participated by health ministers of member states.

This year’s assembly will run through May 22, five days shorter than originally planned because health ministers are busy handling the A(H1N1) flu situation in their own countries.

WHO Director General Margaret Chan, who has the power to declare a pandemic after she consults a panel of scientists, met Mexico’s Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova in Geneva juts before the assembly opened.

At his meeting with Chan, Cordova symbolically handed over the scientific details of the A(H1N1) virus that will allow development of a vaccine.

Since Influenza A(H1N1) became public knowledge in Mexico and the United States less than a month ago, the WHO has raised the global flu alert to level five, one step short of a pandemic.

About 8,500 people have been infected by the new virus after it spread to 36 other countries with travelers, according to the WHO.

The WHO’s 193 member states are expected to hold a special debate on the new flu virus later Monday.

Watching schools

Officials were keeping an eye on the growing number of cases in Japan where more than 2,000 schools were closed Monday in a bid to slow the spread of the virus.

Some 129 people have been infected in Japan, according to Japanese authorities, who only days ago had detected just four cases in travelers from the United States.

“We know that there are some students who have gotten sick. Similar to Europe, UK, Spain, or New York, we are looking very carefully at the situation,” acting Assistant Director General Keiji Fukuda told Agence France-Presse on Saturday.

WHO officials have warned that sustained transmission of the virus in a community outside the Americas would be reason enough to declare a pandemic, alert level six, marking the global spread of the virus.

But they have also emphasized that a pandemic denotes geographical spread of the virus, not the severity of its symptoms.

Member states were also scheduled to decide whether to shorten the assembly to five days instead of 10 so that officials can focus on national preparations against flu.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was slated to meet pharmaceutical companies in Geneva on Tuesday to discuss production of a pandemic flu vaccine.

The WHO is still considering whether to halt seasonal flu output in order to free up production capacity for large-scale pandemic vaccine production. –AFP With Xinhua