Innovative technologies to ease climate change

THE energy needs of Asia and the Pacific implies a rising trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions.

About 1.6 billion people now lack access to electricity, 400 million of them in India alone. It reflects a balancing act between easing climate change and reducing poverty.

Rising energy required needs to maintain high economic growth have significant implications.

If the region’s robust economic growth continues, the energy consumption of developing Asian countries alone will more than double during the next 25 years. At the same time, carbon dioxide emissions will increase more than three-fold as energy supplies become more carbon intensive.

Already, between now and 2030, 97 percent of the projected emissions increase comes from non-highly industrialized countries—three quarters from China and India (and those in the Middle East).

If current trends continue, by 2035 there will be about 250 million more cars and SUVs in China and India. During the past 30 years, the number of vehicles has increased nine-fold in Southeast Asia, 11-fold in India and 16-fold in China.

During this period, the increased transportation demand will lead to a two- to a six-fold increase in oil demand in developing Asia, with a corresponding three-fold increase in carbon dioxide emissions.

Despite some recent acceleration in growth, climate-friendly renewable energy in a business-as-usual scenario will continue to supply a small proportion—less than 10 percent—of the primary energy mix in developing Asia.

Real costs

Mitigation technologies, if valued properly, can greatly reduce the real costs of their implementation.

Energy security is one of the most significant of these because Asia now imports more than 44 percent of the oil it consumes. By 2030, between 40 percent and 75 percent of the natural gas requirement will be imported.

Then there are the co-benefits. According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “there is high agreement and much evidence that near-term health co-benefits from reduced air pollution, as a result of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, can be substantial and may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs.”

Co-benefits such as health, more rural employment, increased agricultural production and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems would further enhance cost savings.

In least developed countries, energy substitution can lower mortality and morbidity by reducing indoor air pollution, reduce the workload for women and children, and decrease the unsustainable use of fuel wood and related deforestation.

There are numerous opportunity available for high-emitting nations to leapfrog to next generation low-emitting technologies.

Take the case of coal. The demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source and is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030. By then, China and India will consume 57 percent of the world’s annual coal supply.

Clean coal as a whole provides one of the most promising mitigation technologies for the region, given the current and projected nature of the fuel mix, as well as the future potential of these technologies.

According to the International Energy Agency, renewable energy sources (excluding combustible biomass and hydropower) account for less than 2 percent of world power generation capacity. Solid biomass accounts for 10 percent of global energy use while hydropower constitutes 2.2 percent.

In 2004, $150 billion was invested globally in conventional technology while only $30 billion was invested in renewable. If investments in renewable energy were to satisfy 4 percent of current energy consumption in the region, the renewable energy market could reach $10 billion annually in Asia and the Pacific within 10 years.

The cost of power generation from renewable are set to fall in response to increased deployment, which accelerates technological progress and increases economies of scale.

Some studies estimate that with research and development and economies of scale, the costs of most renewable energy technologies is reduced by 10 percent to 20 percent each time installed capacity doubles.

Asian Development Bank