Noli keeps lead in May survey

MANILA, Philippines – Vice President Noli de Castro has remained the top choice of Filipinos to succeed President Arroyo in 2010, according to the latest Pulse Asia survey that included new names as possible presidential contenders.

De Castro again topped the list of presidential aspirants for the May 2010 polls, garnering 18 percent of votes of 1,200 Filipino adults, Pulse Asia said in its May 2009 Ulat ng Bayan Survey.

De Castro’s latest rating, however, dropped by one percent from 19 percent last February, putting him in a tight race with Sen. Francis Escudero with 17 percent and former President Joseph Estrada with 15 percent.

Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. came in fourth with 14 percent, followed by Sen. Manuel Roxas II with 13 percent.

Sen. Loren Legarda received seven percent while Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay and Sen. Panfilo Lacson got four percent each.

Sen. Richard Gordon, Philippine Long Distance Co. chair Manuel Pangilinan, Chief Justice Reynato Puno, and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. each got one percent preference rating.

Other presidential aspirants received less than one percent of votes. They were El Shaddai leader Bro. Mike Velarde (0.4 percent), Jesus is Lord Movement leader Bro. Eddie Villanueva (0.3 percent), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chair Bayani Fernando (0.3 percent), and Pampanga governor and priest-on-leave Ed Panlilio (0.2 percent).

It was the first time that Puno and Pangilinan got listed in the surveys, said Pulse Asia chief research fellow Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda.

In Metro Manila and the best-off Class ABC, Escudero (26 percent) is the top presidential bet.

In Mindanao, Estrada (27 percent) and De Castro (21 percent) have almost the same voter preference.

Pulse Asia said the five presidential candidates currently leading at the national level also enjoy nearly the same levels of electoral support in the rest of Luzon (13 percent to 18 percent) and the most numerous Class D (14 percent to 17 percent).

In the Visayas, the favored presidential candidates are Roxas (22 percent), Villar (20 percent), De Castro (18 percent), and Escudero (15 percent), while class E favors De Castro (25 percent), Estrada (19 percent), Escudero (15 percent) and Villar (13 percent).

Between February and May 2009, Pulse Asia said the movements in the voter preferences of these personalities fall within the survey’s error margin of plus or minus three percentage points.

It said the most marked changes during this period are the five percentage-point improvement enjoyed by Roxas and the five percentage-point drop in the ratings of Legarda.

Pulse Asia said despite continued talks about a no-election scenario and uncertainties regarding the automation of the May 2010 elections, the level of public interest in the elections remains high with practically all Filipinos having favored presidential, vice-presidential, and senatorial candidates for May 2010.

The latest survey also showed that about one in three Filipinos (34 percent) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate’s being helpful to others, particularly the poor (27.3 percent) and overseas Filipino workers (6.6 percent).

For around one in 10 Filipinos (11.6 percent), the chosen candidate’s numerous accomplishments is the reason cited for supporting his/her presidential bid.

A candidate’s being clean or not corrupt is cited by 7.1 percent, one’s goodness as a person is mentioned by 5.6 percent, and one’s being a fighter is identified by 5.4 percent as the reason for favoring a presidential bet.

On the other hand, 30.6 percent of Filipinos cited a cluster of other attributes including a candidate’s being intelligent (five percent), his/her being from the same geographic area or ethnic group as the respondent (three percent), having good intentions for the country (2.5 percent), being independent (2.4 percent), and being good at what he/she does (2.3 percent).

Other characteristics cited were being pro-people (1.9 percent), being knowledgeable in the management of governmental affairs (1.8 percent), being strict (1.6 percent), being hardworking (1.6 percent), having the ability to fulfill promises made and other things (1.3 percent), being loyal (1.3 percent), being used to poverty or being poor him/herself (1.1 percent), being young (1.1 percent), and being approachable (one percent).

Trust unwavering

Vice President Noli de Castro thanked his supporters for their unwavering trust in him, and promised to work doubly hard in performing his duties.

De Castro remained tightlipped on the ongoing talks between him and Lakas that is awaiting his final decision on whether he will join them and run for president under the ruling party.

When asked about his possible running mate, De Castro said only his presidential bid is clear.

Escudero said he was “humbled by and grateful for” the people’s confidence in him.

Roxas attributed his five-point gain in the latest Pulse Asia survey to his pro-poor advocacies and programs, while Villar said he will take everything in stride, believing that surveys are not the only basis of a candidate’s winnability.

Meantime, former senator Ernesto Maceda said in case Estrada will run for president in 2010, his chances of winning will be boosted by the probability that there will be more than one administration presidential candidate.

But election lawyer Romulo Macalintal, who represented President Arroyo in the election protest of the late movie actor Fernando Poe Jr., said yesterday that the opposition will be standard-bearer-less in 2010 once it fields Estrada who may eventually be disqualified.

Macalintal said this is possible if Estrada’s certificate of candidacy (COC) is cancelled by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) on the ground that, as former president, he is not eligible for “any reelection” as provided under Article VII Section 4 of the Constitution.

“If the said action of the Comelec is sustained by the Supreme Court, Estrada cannot be substituted by anyone because the rule is that a person with a cancelled certificate of candidacy is no candidate at all,” Macalintal said. –Helen Flores with Aurea Calica, Pia Lee-Brago, Ding Cervantes, Jose Rodel Clapano, Marvin Sy, Philippine Star