Economy begins recovery

Latest flash indicators point to a modest Philippine economic recovery from the global financial crisis that started in October last year, the National Statistical Coordination Board said yesterday.

“The impact of the global financial crisis was felt in the Philippines starting October 2008 as exports decreased, manufacturing dropped, stock index declined and car sales weakened. However, statistics point to modest signs of recovery by the end of the first quarter of 2009,” NSCB secretary-general Romulo Virola said yesterday.

The NSCB released the indicators ahead of the announcement of the second quarter gross domestic product growth scheduled in the last week of August. GDP growth slowed to 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2009 from 3.9 percent a year ago.

Economic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto earlier said second quarter growth was expected to be better than the 0.4-percent expansion in the first quarter due to the slowing inflation rate and improving exports growth data.

The statistical agency also confirmed that while indicators on manufacturing such as the value and volume of production index and capacity utilization rate showed declining trend from October 2008, they began to reflect improvement by February this year.

“Total exports as well as exports of electronic products and agricultural products exhibited similar trend. The same can be said for total imports and imports of raw materials and capital goods. Other indicators which showed similar trend are composite stock index, stock market capitalization, and volume of cars sold,” it said.

Data showed that Philippine exports hit a seven-month high of $3.4 billion in June 2009. While shipments were down 24.7 percent from a year ago, the drop was significantly slower than the steep 40.6-percent contraction recorded in January.

Inflation rate, or the rate at which consumer prices are rising, hit a 22-year-low of 0.2 percent in July.

Sales of motor vehicles in the Philippines reached 11,597 units in July, the highest monthly figure in 2009.

At the local stock market, the PSEi, the 30-company benchmark index of the Philippine Stock Exchange, breached 2,850 points in the second week of August, its highest level in more than a year.

These data are among the 81 flash indicators identified by the NSCB Task Force on Flash Indicators to measure the impact of the global crisis on the Philippines. The body is headed by Dennis Arroyo, director of the National Planning and Policy Staff of Neda. –Roderick T. dela Cruz, Manila Standard Today