Erap jumps to No.1 in SWS survey

Leads with 21% rating in field of 10 bets

Former President Joseph Estrada, who has yet to declare his candidacy in the 2010 presidential race, has dislodged Nacionalista Party standard bearer Sen. Manuel Villar in the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted last June 19 to 22, 2009, with a respondents base of 1,500 and a plus minus 2 1/2 error margins on a national level.

The questionnaire was placed in as a rider in the June SWS survey, coming from one of the presidential aspirants who wanted to know his standing in the race on the basis of a list of probable presidential candidates, with the respondents being asked to give only one choice from the list.

This survey is deemed private and will not be bared by the SWS unless given permission by the individual or group that sought this specific survey.

SWS is expected to deny the private survey and its results.

The Tribune, however, managed to obtain the survey results of this private survey.

Unlike the usual SWS surveys of its so-called presidential picks, where respondents are asked to give three names of presidential aspirants of their choice, on a “top of the mind” basis, this survey asks respondents to name just a single presidential choice.

A presidential survey that asks respondents to name three choices does not provide an accurate gauge of the respondents’ choice, since a vote for one is also a vote for two more presidential bets, although propaganda wise, such a survey mode can be useful to the presidential aspirants.

With this mode employed in this SWS survey, Estrada landed on top of the list, with a 21 percent rating, while Villar dropped to second place, with a 19 percent rating.

Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero, said to be the choice of his party, the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), landed in third place, obtaining a rating of 18 percent.

Vice President Noli de Castro, who used to be the top rater in presidential surveys, appears to have peaked too early, and has dropped down in ratings, with De Castro, who aims to get the endorsement of President Arroyo and gain the machinery of the administration party. Lakas-Kampi-CMD, staying in fourth place with a 15 percent rating.

Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas, who, in the SWS “top presidential picks” obtained a two digit rating, dropped to a single digit rating again, in fifth place with a 9 percent rating.

He is followed by Sen. Loren Legarda, at sixth place, with a survey rating of seven percent.

Makati Mayor and PDP Laban bet Jejomar Binay landed in seventh place, with a four percent rating.

All others, such as Sen. Richard Gordon, Metro Manila Development Authority Bayani Fernando, among others receiving the same percentage ratings, obtained one percent.

Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro obtained a 0.5 percent rating.

Estrada has threatened to run for the presidency if the opposition presidential aspirants fail to unite behind a single standard bearer, saying that having a single opposition standard bearer will lessen the chances of the administration to engage in massive electoral fraud as what had happened in 2004, when opposition figures insisted on going their own way.

With the LP, NP, NPC and the PDP-Laban going their own way, it is almost certain that no unification of the opposition presidential aspirants is likely to occur.

Estrada has been going around the provinces which visits are billed as a Thanksgiving tour. His camp says that Estrada is merely going back to the people to thank them for their continued support and trust in him throughout his detention and conviction on charges of plunder.

He is said to have covered some 67 provinces already.

In the second quarter survey. Still in the mode of top of the mind for voter’s pick with respondents giving three names for their gtop picks,h the results already showed an upset, with Villar overtaking Vce-President De Castro as the person voters see as succeeding President Arroyo next year. The survey with a 7,000 respondent base was commissioned by Villar.

Results of the second quarter survey showed a shakeup in the top three rankings, with De Castro and Legarda plunging to fourth and fifth places, respectively.

Estrada jumped to second place, from a previous 13 percent survey rating to 25 percent, with Villar having 33 percent of the survey vote.

Third place went to Escudero with Roxas getting fifth place with a 15 percent rating.

On a one choice only survey mode, Roxas was down to 7 percent from a 15 percent rating based on three choice vote.

Villar, who had obtained a 33 percent rating on the same three choice vote, dropped to 19 percent on a one respondent, one vote mode.

Estrada, who landed in second place on a three choices mode with a rating of 25 percent, obtained a rating of 21 percent on a one choice, one vote system.

Escudero who obtained 20 percent in the earlier survey commissioned by Villar, landing in third place, had 18 percent on a listed and one vote one choice mode. –Daily Tribune