Predicting the future

Predicting the future is tough enough given the reality that we mere mortals aren’t directly connected to God, deregulation of telecoms not withstanding. But the less uncertainty there is, the easier it is to run a business successfully. The President, by not making a clear categorical statement that she would not try to extend her term in any fashion would greatly assure nervous investors who, if that’s not done, will sit on the sidelines till the outcome is known. Or invest in a country with a more predictable future. It may be a clever political maneuver (although I don’t think it is as she’s not using her power to ram necessary, unpopular bills through anyway), but it’s a very foolish business one.

Let me be blunt about it upfront. Mr. Estrada cannot be considered for the presidency again. He is a convicted criminal, of a crime that used to merit the death sentence. Now life imprisonment. A crime the Supreme Court confirmed he was guilty of. For some obscure reason, President Arroyo pardoned him. I’ve no idea why as it sends a terrible message: Crime pays if you’re influential and important enough.

Anyway, didn’t he agree upon accepting the pardon to not enter politics again? Is this just another piece of paper with perforations across it? Surely if he were an honorable man he would abide by his agreement—whether verbal or in writing. The very fact he isn’t doing so alone makes him morally ineligible to lead the nation.

Paper after paper, article after article has tried to analyze why the Philippines didn’t take off like its neighbors, and all sorts of cultural and societal reasons have been given. But I’d suggest a very fundamental one, the lovely Filipino trait of forgiving others, being forgiven by others and not raising a storm of protest to avoid offense is a primary reason.

I can assure you that there’s no way in the world an Estrada could even consider running for office in Australia (despite almost all Aussies started off as convicts). He’d be in jail serving his term as two presidents in Korea are doing. Civilized societies put their criminals in jail to serve their term, it’s what makes them civilized societies.

As for President Arroyo, she’s served her term, or will do so by June 30, 2010. She should just quietly step down and assume a statesman position as her two predecessors have done. She’s done her job, more than done it with a term-and-a-half, time for someone else to pick up the mantle. She may have done a good job and feel the country needs her far longer, but there are others of equivalent competence and the people through their Constitution say they want that change. –Peter Wallace, Manila Standard Today