Doubts cast on accuracy of Noynoy survey

MANILA, Philippines – A private polling and political advocacy group yesterday expressed doubts on the accuracy of surveys showing Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III leading by a huge margin among the 2010 presidential aspirants.

Ed Malay, director of the Issues and Advocacy Center, said he issued the statement after being asked for its position on the survey that showed Aquino leading the pack of presidential hopefuls.

He said it was “impossible” to interview 1,200 respondents in just two days.

“We at the Center always allot from five to seven days for field data extraction, two to four days for tabulation and another two to five days for analysis, call-back and cross-evaluation, which is a system that we developed and which other survey organizations do not have,” Malay said.

“This allows us to generate an accurate picture of the political topography in the country,” he said.

Malay, who is identified with former President Fidel Ramos, has been undertaking political polls. The Center’s latest survey was in August that showed Sen. Manuel Villar, former President Joseph Estrada, and Sen. Francis Escudero topping the polls. The same survey included Aquino but among possible vice presidential candidates, obtaining 29 percent of 1,200 respondents.

He, however, stressed that it is “unethical” to dispute the Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, “even if the results are somewhat hard to believe,” because it is “an established organization.”

He said the results of polls “must be ranged against the realities on the ground,” as the Center does in its polls.

Media operations

“To be blunt about it, the presidential campaign has taken off even before the filing of the certificates of candidacies and we’ll be seeing more of these special media operations in the days to come,” Malay said.

He said it was “understandable” that Aquino, being the “last to board the presidential campaign train, and his strategists will have to do everything to turn him into a viable and winnable candidate and this is just one of those.

“(And) they pulled the rug on other presidentiables who were caught napping,” Malay said.

He said Aquino has “succeeded in grabbing the advantage from the other candidates and he enjoys the support of a big broadcasting network and a national broadsheet.”

“This only proves that media giants can dictate where the fortunes of this country will go. Whether this is good for the country or not is for the people to decide. It’s their future on the line,” he said.

Lakas-Kampi: Who cares?

But allies of President Arroyo are not bothered by Aquino’s newfound fame and sudden rise to the top of the surveys. They have even expressed doubts whether the so-called yellow fever euphoria would last until election day on May 2010.

“There is a long way to go. Now the question is, will this euphoria live until the May elections?” Nueva Ecija Rep. Rodolfo Antonino, an administration stalwart who heads the House committee on public order and safety, asked.

“It’s understandable that Noynoy will have high ratings because of the recent developments,” he said, adding that the surveys were done after the death of former President Corazon Aquino.

“We in the Lakas-Kampi-CMD are not bothered by this survey, our party remains a formidable one because of its political machinery,” he said.

“The strong showing is expected because he was surrounded with wide media coverage at the time of his mother’s death and the political developments that transpired from (Sen. Mar) Roxas’ withdrawal to his retreat and acceptance of the challenge for him to run,” he pointed out.

Enrile: Euphoria doesn’t exist

Senators and other presidential hopefuls also downplayed the SWS survey, but Aquino said the adverse reactions were expected.

What he was not expecting, according to him, was that the SWS survey would validate seven to eight other surveys commissioned by other individuals to prove to him he has a chance to win in the 2010 presidential elections.

Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, Senators Villar, Loren Legarda and Jamby Madrigal said surveys were expected to change every so often depending on the circumstances surrounding a candidate.

However, Sen. Francis Pangilinan, a supporter of Aquino at the Liberal Party, said the SWS survey was significant and an indication that people wanted the message of change the candidacy of Aquino represented.

Enrile said the survey was only done in Luzon and noted that Aquino did not attract too many people in other areas.

“With due respect to them, I just came from the south, the euphoria does not exist,” Enrile said, adding the euphoria was confined in Metro Manila at the moment and “so let us wait for it to spill over in the country.”

But he conceded that he could be biased because he is part of the Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino headed by former President Joseph Estrada.

“This coming elections is like a tournament of knights,” the Senate chief said. “Maiwan ang matibay (The strongest will remain.) In the end you have to fight each other. You have a joust, a political joust and whoever can sustain it, sustain the interest of the people, will be the victor.”

Villar, standard-bearer of the Nacionalista Party, said the results were fine with him even if he got only 14 percent and was dislodged by Aquino from the number one slot.

“Of course we will wait for the other surveys, we want to know the results from all over the Philippines as well as the regular (non-commissioned) surveys of the SWS and Pulse Asia,” he said.

“It is also important for us to see the basis and the movements or the places covered by the survey,” Villar said, noting that Metro Manila and certain parts of Luzon were only a small part of the country.

Marcoses still lukewarm on Noynoy

But Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. predicted that the 2010 presidential race would be a close fight between former President Estrada and Senator Villar.

In a statement, Rep Marcos said Aquino “will surely have a hard time keeping up with the two equally popular opposition presidential candidates.”

“There is no doubt that Noynoy has pure intentions and that he is really willing to serve the public with all his heart. But I think Erap and Manny are already miles ahead of him,” he said.

Marcos cited Estrada’s organized mass support and Villar’s growing strength among the youth and professionals.

“Noynoy needs to double his efforts. He has to reach out to farmers and fishermen. I know he has strong appeal, and he should work on this more,” he stressed.

Marcos said he won’t be surprised if either Villar or Estrada will be proclaimed president in the 2010.

His mother, former first lady Imelda Romualdez Marcos, declared that the Marcos family has no official position yet as far as Aquino’s presidential bid is concerned despite the public declaration of one of her children to support him.

According to a supporter, Mrs. Marcos was peeved by the senator’s alleged grandstanding at their family’s expense when he announced that he would run after the Marcos wealth.

“Otherwise she would have been inclined to follow Imee’s bid to support Noynoy,” the Marcos loyalist, who requested anonymity, told The STAR.

Her eldest daughter, former Laoag congresswoman Imee, had earlier announced her support for Noynoy.

Speaking during the celebration of Marcos Day in Sarrat, Ilocos Norte last Sunday, Mrs. Marcos said Aquino’s promise to pursue the investigation and recovery of the alleged ill-gotten wealth of her family is a welcome development.

“Such (move) will end up with (finding out) the truth. Lalabas (din) ang katotohanan (the truth will come out),” she said, but did not elaborate.

DAR ready to distribute Hacienda Luisita

Meanwhile, the Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR) said it is ready to distribute the vast sugarcane plantation in Hacienda Luisita if Aquino makes good his plan to let go of the land’s ownership.

DAR chief Nasser Pangandaman said they had already come up with certificates of land ownership award (CLOA) to be distributed to qualified beneficiaries in 2006 when the Supreme Court issued a last minute temporary restraining order, enjoining his office from doing so.

“We were almost at the tail-end of processing the distribution of the said property when the Supreme Court-issued TRO came. The farmer-beneficiaries were already identified, the CLOAs were already available for distribution and the schedule for distributing them was already set then,” he said.

Pangandaman also urged Aquino to withdraw his family’s petition for preliminary writ of injunction before the High Court.

Last Saturday, Aquino disclosed that the Cojuangco-Aquino family is contemplating on giving up the property as labor predicaments and financial difficulties continue to afflict it.

“As of now, for me personally, if my family finds it hard to stay there as before, then maybe my family should leave,” Aquino was quoted as saying.

Critics have slammed the family for putting Hacienda Luisita under the stock distribution option (SDO), an alternative offered under the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP) in place of land distribution.

The CARP was considered the “centerpiece program” of the administration of Aquino’s mother, the late President Corazon Aquino.

The Kilusang Mayo Uno (KMU) said Aquino must clarify his recent pronouncement that he is willing to give up ownership of the disputed property.

“Sen. Noynoy says he is giving up the ownership of his part of the land. To whom? To the farmers or to other members of the Cojuangco family? We are asking him to push the Cojuangcos to drop their claim in court to own the land in favor of the farmers,” KMU said in a statement.

It added that the senator’s actions might only be construed as political gimmick or mere media mileage since he is gunning for the presidency. –-Paolo Romero (The Philippine Star) with Teddy Molina, Sheila Crisostomo, Delon Porcalla, Katherine Adraneda