Exports seen growing in Q4

PHILIPPINE EXPORTS ARE FINALLY rebounding on a year-on-year basis, with the fourth-quarter shipment seen growing by 1.8 percent amid signs of recovery in the global electronics market, according to DBS Bank.

Also, the Singapore-based bank said imports would follow suit in the first quarter of 2010, to grow by 30 percent.

Based on DBS estimates, exports for October to December and imports for January to March will both amount to $11 billion in current prices.

By the first quarter of next year, merchandise exports would have regained double-digit yearly growth level at 14 percent.

In its latest quarterly report on Southeast Asian economies, DBS noted that the Philippine economy had been late in posting improvements, having contracted quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter when markets were showing hints of a rebound.

“At that time, much of Asia was experiencing just the opposite, being pulled out of recession because exports had recovered sharply,” the bank said.

“Since May, however, the country has seen export momentum pick up significantly,” DBS added. “Our estimates suggest that this acceleration has not been driven by China, but rather by US and Japan.”

DBS said there were signs that a recovery in the global electronics cycle is underway, which is good news for a country where electronics account for 60 percent of exports.

“So even if demand from the US and Japan should eventually start to flag, overall exports out of the Philippines should at least still be able to maintain a gradual upward grind,” it said.

As of June, the decline in the value of Philippine merchandise exports continued to abate, easing at a seven-month best of -24.7 percent year-on-year to $3.41 billion.

Data from the National Statistics Office show that exports have been declining for nine straight months since the domestic economy started to feel the effects of the global financial crisis.

Still, exports are again upbeat on a month-on-month basis with an increase of 10.4 percent compared to the $3.088 billion revenue posted in May.

This means a second straight month of monthly increases, following a 10.1-percent rise last May.

This puts cumulative exports revenue at $17.225 billion in the first half, dipping by 32.8 percent from the $25.623 billion reported in the same period last year. –Ronnel Domingo, Philippine Daily Inquirer