Passion vs political machine

The dramatic events which happened on Sept. 1 at the Club Filipino, where Mar Roxas, quoting from a speech of his grandfather, Manuel A. Roxas, the first president of the Republic, said he was putting “Country above self,” tossed the baton of leadership and, effectively, the presidential nomination, to the junior senator from Tarlac, Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, ended his personal quest for the office, at least, for now.

Lakas-Kampi

The Lakas-Kampi-CMD, the ruling administration party, announced it will start the process within the month amid rumblings from the rank that a further delay in the choices of candidates could cost them dearly. This observation comes from Rep. Milagros Magsaysay of Zambales which the Palace could very well heed.

Inroads by Gilbert

While Vice President Noli de Castro continues to be a viable option, he has not shown any indications, thus far, of agreeing to come to terms with the Lakas-Kampi-CMD party.

In the meantime, Secretary of National Defense Gilbert Teodoro has apparently made some inroads into the pro-administration local officials. Reports indicate that no less than 49 governors endorsed his candidacy for president, and promised to bring their desire for Gilbert to lead them in 2010 to the attention of President Gloria Arroyo with whom they are scheduled to meet, over the weekend.

If the 49 governors would carry out their plans, it’s going to be a formidable force and with support from some congressmen from the House of Representatives, Gilbert may indeed carry the day, as far as the nomination for president is concerned.

The Noynoy problem

His only problem would be coming from Tarlac, the same province as Noynoy Aquino. In fact, they are second cousins. Their middle names are the same, they are from the same Cojuangco clan.

Four cornered fight

For Lakas it’s going to be Noli or Gilbert.

For the Nacionalista Party, it is a foregone conclusion. It’s Manny Villar or bust.

For the Pwersa ng Masa-PDP-UNO, it is Joseph Estrada.

For the Liberal Party it is Noynoy Aquino, with the recent entry of the Osmeñas into his camp. Are we still surprised Noynoy is a real player?

Prospects are dimmer

For the Nationalist People’s Coalition, the prospects are all of a sudden dimmer and they may not have a presidential candidate. As for VP, Chiz Escudero rejected an alliance with Manny Villar’s Nacionalista Party. His reasons were a surprise. He strongly denied his interest in a Villar-Escudero team up, saying that good governance with the C-5 road scandal looming in the Senate is an impossibility with Villar.

Two classifications

While 2010 promises to be a four cornered fight with Lakas-Kampi, PMP-PDP-UNO, the Nacionalista Party and the LP, they may be classified in two major categories. The first would be superiority in terms of resources. The key would be effective use of such resources. In short, the conventional way of fighting war, logistics, how to get them, supply lines, reinforcements and application of such methods. The second category would be the antithesis of the first.

It is expected the two parties under this classification are the Lakas-Kampi-CMD Party and the Nacionalista Party. The other classification are the PMP-PDP-UNO Party and the LP recently endowed with the yellow fever.

The haves vs have nots

Estrada and Noynoy are expected to fight with passion and volunteerism. They appeal to the better nature of the voters. Hardly any money to spend on expensive infomercials. In short — dehado sa pera.

While the administration Lakas-Kampi and the NP will fight in a more conventional manner with the entry of the Zamora brothers into the Nacionalista Party’s inner circle, it is conventional money politics all the way.

An emotional exercise

Voting for a president is essentially an emotional exercise. For the troops, it is passion versus the political machine, guerrilla tactics vs conventional warfare, good vs evil, class warfare at its fiercest. –Antonio Gatmaitan, Daily Tribune