The pervasive influence of poll surveys

THE recent poll survey of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) showing Noynoy Aquino far ahead of his rivals in the 2010 presidential race may have caused rabid believers in surveys that the Liberal Party standard bearer could well be the next president of the Republic.

Noynoy was visibly in high spirits. “This proves that people want change. It was indicative of the nation’s pulse,” he said, adding there were actually eight separate surveys commissioned by some private individuals, all revealing “practically the same results.”

Although the SWS survey was limited in scope, covering only parts of Luzon, it was politically significant because these were vote-rich areas accounting for 40 percent of the country’s entire voting population.

The survey has immediately evoked sour-graping by some presidential contenders adversely affected by the poll surveys.

Leaders of the administration party, Lakas-Kampi, said they were not bothered by Noynoy’s remarkable showing in the SWS poll. Rep. Rodolfo Antonino of Nueva Ecija said the administration party “remains formidable because of its political machinery.”

The party has not announced so far its presidential candidate who could either be Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro or Chairman Bayani Fernando of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority since Vice President Noli de Castro appeared reluctant to join Lakas-Kampi and become its standard-bearer.

Former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada, who had declared his intention to run for president, was unfazed by the SWS survey. “They are unpredictable,” he said, pointing out that people will change their minds as the May 2010 presidential election draws near.

Sen. Manny Villar, frontrunner in recent nationwide surveys by SWS and Pulse Asia, described the survey as “questionable both in process and scope.” (The SWS survey, conducted on September 5 and 6, had Noynoy on top with 50 percent of the votes, with Villar a far second with 14 percent, followed by Erap with 13, Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero, 12, and de Castro, 7,)

Legarda downplayed the survey results. A member of the Nationalist People’s Coalition with Escudero, she said the party would announce its presidential ticket by the third week of September. The standard bearer would either be Escudero or Loren, depending on who will fare better in the poll surveys.

The SWS survey has undoubtedly invigorated the hopes of Noynoy to win the presidential contest while it has dampened the spirits of his rivals. This is a clear indication that the presidential candidates have continued to look up to surveys as the political oracle that can predict their chances of winning or losing in an election.

But it would be comforting to heed what the late US President Richard Nixon had to say in his book, Leaders, regarding poll surveys. He wrote:

“Too many politicians today ride toward destiny ‘at full Gallup’ [punning on Gallup Poll, one of America’s established polling agencies]. The candidate who slavishly follows the polls may get elected, but he will not be a great leader or even a good one. Polls can be useful in identifying those areas where a particular persuasion is needed.

“But if he sets his course by them, he abdicates his role as a leader. The task of a leader is not to follow the polls but to make the polls follow him.”

In a previous column, I wrote that while public opinion polling has become an accepted system of measuring the attitudes, perspectives and preferences of people toward events, circumstances and issues of public interest, they do not always predict the true picture of the people’s sentiment.

I had pointed out two fallacies in the polls in 1936 wrongly predicting the victory of Republican Candidate Alf Landon in the US presidential election and that of Thomas Dewey over that of Harry S. Truman in the 1948 election. The surveys were fatally flawed in both cases because of the defective sampling of respondents.

To the extent that a polling agency follows a careful methodology through a random sampling of respondents, the result could truly reflect the preference of people in a particular research. But since polling is not an exact science and therefore not error-free, it cannot always be relied upon for accurate results.

There were attempts before by critics to propose a ban on the publication of poll survey results because they tend to influence voters into favoring certain candidates appearing to be enjoying a notable popularity in the surveys. They pointed out that showing a certain candidate ahead in the polls would encourage people to vote for that candidate in disregard of the true merits of the case.

Those against surveys have remained unconvinced that the opinion of 1,500 respondents being surveyed could really be a viable representation of the preference of the whole population. But sadly, candidates and their followers have remained inextricably hooked on surveys as if these have been the be-all and end-all of their life. –Alfredo G. Rosario, Manila Times

agr0324@yahoo.com