The SWS survey: A feasibility study

The survey on Sept. 5 and 6 conducted by the Social Weather Station (SWS) commissioned by businessmen led by Ramon “Boy Blue” del Rosario, chairman of the Makati Business Club, and former Sen. Serge Osmeña, a fellow political detainee of the late Eugenio Geny Lopez, founder of the then newly revived ABS-CBN after the Edsa revolt, was intended to be the feasibility study for the presidential run of Sen. Noynoy Aquino. It was designed to get an indication how Noynoy would do, if elections were held today, in the crucial Lingayen to Lucena corridor — the series of town and cities snaking down essentially the Western part of Luzon all the way South to the suburbs of Lucena City.

No warlords

The essential features of these towns and cities are that not one of them is controlled or dominated by warlords. They are where modern electoral practices can be exercised such as telephone brigades, knocking on doors, ringing of doorbells, volunteers for free elections, with a minimum of interference form the dominant political parties.

A win in the corridor is a must

In short, the kind of environment that allowed the Cory campaign to thrive there in 1986. The logic being, you must win in the Lingayen-Lucena corridor to prove your mettle. The corridor accounts for approximately three out of every eight registered voters. Not unlike the KBL campaign in 1986, with the power of machinery evident, particularly in the North, Eastern Visayas, and Mindanao, the supporters of Noynoy are envisioning a sweep in the corridor and hope for some defections in the controlled areas.

Lakas not the KBL

The Lakas-Kampi-CMD is obviously a formidable force. But it is nowhere near the political machinery of the once mighty KBL.

36 percent quality votes

The Lingayen-Lucena corridor accounts for nearly 36 percent of the total registered voters. These “quality” votes are one of the first to be reported, given the proximity to Metro Manila and therefore considered by observers, both local and international, as relatively “honest” votes. That is why Cory Aquino claimed victory a few days after the February elections, while the counting was still going on in other parts of the country, particularly in Mindanao. As it turned out, Cory lost the count, but was able to sit as president of what was billed then as a revolutionary government.

The feasibility study

The SWS Presidential Preferences for 2010 Elections

NCR Pangasinan Region III Region IV-A

Noynoy 50 percent 48 percent 49 percent 51 percent

Villar 14 percent 22 percent 15 percent 12 percent

Erap 15 percent 5 percent 14 percent 13 percent

Chiz 14 percent 10 percent 9 percent 12 percent

Noli 7 percent 5 percent 8 percent 6 percent

With these kind of blow away results, the organizers of the survey, obviously pleased, decided to release them to the public.

Nothing from the north and south

Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile said that while Sen. Aquino has captured the imagination of some voters… “I have just come from the north there is no evidence that Noynoy has an organization there… and the same thing from the south, I don’t hear anything about him there either.”

A reminder to Noynoy

We would like to paraphrase what we advised the NPs: National opinion surveys do not an election make. A victory in September does not translate to a win in May.

But it is a good beginning. No mistaking about that… –Antonio Gatmaitan, Daily Tribune