Villar tops flawed poll

Sen. Manuel Villar led the choice among 1,200 respondents in a survey on the preference for president for next year’s elections conducted by The Center with 20 percent followed by former President Joseph Estrada and Sen. Francis Escudero in a tie for second and third places both with 16 percent, which comes to an almost statistical tie with Villar’s rating with a three percent margin of error based on the number of those polled.

The Center, a think tank formed by Edgardo Malay, however, used a 2.8 percent margin of error instead but statistics rules stated that to attain a 95 percent level of confidence a survey with 1,000 to 1,500 respondents requires a margin of error of three percent. The survey had no known confidence level.

The survey showed that in a 13-way fight, aside from Villar, Estrada and Escudero, Sen.Manuel Roxas II of the Liberal Party (LP) will place fourth with 15 percent; Vice President Noli de Castro fifth at 12 percent and Sen. Loren Legarda sixth at eight percent.

Also in the survey were Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, picked by six percent of respondents; Sen. Richard Gordon two percent; Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Chairman Bayani Fernando, one percent; Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, 0.8 percent; Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio, 0.5 percent; Senator Jamby Madrigal 0.5 percent; and Chief Justice Reynato Puno 0.5 percent.

The survey, however, also showed a nine-way presidential race in the survey in which the results were radically different. In a nine-way fight, Villar still leads with a 26 percent rating but he is followed now by Roxas with 18 percent, while Estrada and Escudero slide to a tie between third and fourth with a 15 percent rating.

The survey also showed the top choice for vice president was Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III with 29 percent followed by Escudero, 20 percent; Legarda, 12 percent; and De Castro, seven percent.

The survey also introduced possible tandems for the elections next year, which mostly were highly unlikely such as that between Villar for president and Escudero for vice president which got a 45 percent rating, followed by an Escudero-Legarda tandem with 42 percent, Roxas-Aquino, 40 percent; Villar-Jinggoy Estrada, 32 percent; Legarda-Escudero, 27 percent; Roxas-Escudero, 26 percent, and Estrada-De Castro, 23 percent.

Strangely, the survey had nothing on an Estrada-Escudero tandem.

The survey also got a sampling of how the endorsement by key political figures on candidates, with Kris Aquino, the daughter of former President Corazon Aquino supposedly seen as helping the election chances of candidates by 80 percent of those polled, former President Estrada remains a strong endorser with a 72 percent rating, former President Fidel Ramos got a 68 percent rating while only 20 percent believed an endorsement from President Arroyo would benefit candidates.

The survey also showed the top choices for senators in the coming elections were Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, 51 percent followed by Sen. Pia Cayetano at 50 percent, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, 49 percent; Sen. Bong Revilla, 49 percent; Kris Aquino, 46 percent; Sen. Miriam Santiago, 44 percent; former Sen. Franklin Drilon, 41 percent; Sen. Richard Gordon, 40 percent; former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto, 40 percent; former Sen. Ramon Magsaysay Jr. 37 percent, and former Sen. Tito Sotto III, 36 percent.

While Manny Villar continues to dominate presidential surveys conducted by all of the country’s leading research institutions, President Arroyo remains haunted by the negative issues concerning her administration seeing her popularity skidding furthermore as her term nears its end in 2010.

Of the survey for satisfaction ratings of government officials, Arroyo got a net satisfaction rating of -39 percentwith de Castro getting a +18 percent.

Malay is FVR’s spokesman and PR. –Charlie V. Manalo, Daily Tribune