Aquino tops Ibon survey but by smaller lead; Villar is second

MANILA, Philippines—The Liberal Party standard-bearer, Sen. Benigno Aquino III, topped a survey conducted by Ibon Foundation Oct. 2-8, but he had a much smaller lead over his fellow presidential aspirants.

The survey, released Tuesday, asked 1,496 respondents from Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao the question: “If elections were held today, who would you vote for?”

The respondents were first asked to list down their choice for president and, in a separate item, they were asked to select a candidate from a list provided in the survey questionnaire, Ibon said.

“Aquino ranked first for both survey items, with a percentage of 22.6 percent in the open question and 32.2 percent in the multiple choice,” the research foundation said.

Senators Manny Villar and Francis Escudero placed second and third, respectively, in both survey items. Former President Joseph Estrada ranked fourth in both lists, Ibon said.

Other earlier surveys conducted by the Social Weather Stations had Aquino getting the vote of more than 50 percent of respondents.

Regional results

Ibon said that based on results from its multiple choice questionnaire, Aquino took the lead across all regions: 24.2 percent in the National Capital Region (NCR), Luzon 25.5 percent, Visayas 34.6 percent and Mindanao 46.5 percent.

“It is worth noting that Senator Aquino, who enters the survey list for the first time in the three survey rounds this year, may have cornered possible votes for Senators Villar and Escudero,” it said.

Ibon said the survey used “a multistage probability sampling scheme and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.”

Based on its latest and previous multiple choice questionnaire surveys, Ibon said, Villar’s poll numbers have gone up—14.64 percent in April, 17.12 percent in July and 19.32 percent in October.

Estrada rating

On the other hand, Ibon said the ratings of Escudero and Estrada have gone down. Escudero’s steadily slid from 16.98 percent in April to 15.32 percent in July and 12.10 percent in October, the foundation said.

It said Estrada’s rating picked up from 9.63 percent in April to 11.57 percent in July, but it then went down by almost 5 percentage points to just 6.75 percent in the first week of October.

The multiple choice questionnaire results showed that in the NCR, Aquino got 24.19 percent, Villar 15.59 percent, Escudero 12.90 percent, Vice President Noli de Castro 9.68 percent and Estrada 9.14 percent, Ibon said.

Highest rating in Mindanao

For the rest of Luzon, Aquino had 25.5 percent, Villar 21.35 percent, Escudero 14.59 percent, Estrada 9.37 percent and Sen. Loren Legarda 6.14 percent.

Ibon said in the Visayas, Aquino cornered 34.64 percent, Villar 20.92 percent, Escudero 7.19 percent, Sen. Mar Roxas 6.21 percent and Legarda 3.92 percent.

Aquino got his highest rating in Mindanao, where he was the choice of 46.46 percent of respondents. Villar again came in second with 16.15 percent, Escudero 11.33 percent, Estrada 5.38 percent and Roxas 3.68 percent. –Philip Tubeza, Philippine Daily Inquirer