Joblessness to get worse, says report

The jobless situation in the Philippines was likely to worsen this year and next year because of the trade contraction resulting from the global crisis, according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (Unescap).

In its report titled, “Asia Pacific Trade and Investment Report 2009,” the UN body said that the impact of the crisis on real exports was generally “negative.”

Because of this, the commission projected that the Philippines may post a 14.14-percent contraction in exports this year and 6.06-percent growth next year.

Imports were also projected to contract by 12.75 percent this year and 8.23-percent growth next year.
From January to August, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reported a 30.3-percent declined in exports, while imports fell 30.8 percent.

In other Asian countries, such as Indonesia, exports are also projected to drop by 10.85 percent this year, while in Malaysia exports may contract 11.70 percent; Thailand, negative 17.02 percent; Singapore, negative 15.84 percent; and Korea, 3.084 percent.

”The pattern of export contractions is mirrored by the pattern of declines in output. All sectors are quite severely affected, suffering declines in output of between 3 percent and 14 percent,” UN commission reported.

The report explained that the lower growth predicted for 2009 implies that there will be less demand from these countries’ domestic markets as well as less demand for their exports.

For the Philippines, factory output dropped for 10th consecutive months in August with 13.3-percent contraction.

Labor and GDP

“The collapse of trade has also caused a sharp decline in demand for labor in many Asia-Pacific developing economies,” the commission reported.

The UN report projected that unemployment rates may grow 8.6 percent this year and 8.9 percent next year for the Philippines.

The National Statistics Office earlier reported that jobless rate in July was 7.6 percent, or about 2.9 million Filipinos. This was higher than last year’s figure of 2.7 million persons during same period.

Meanwhile, unemployment in Indonesia is likely to be at 9.3 percent this year, 10.1 percent next year; Malaysia, 3.9 percent and 4 percent year; Thailand, 3.1 percent and 4.4 percent; Singapore, 6 percent and 7 percent; and Korea, 3.9 percent and 4.1 percent.

The UN report also said that because exports and imports fall faster than gross domestic product (GDP) in an economic slump, openness is expected to contract and poverty is expected to increase.

GDP, a key economic indicator, is the total cost of all goods and services produced in a country in a year.

The report also said that for every percentage point increase in trade openness reduces the number of poor who live on $1 a day by 0.7 percent.

The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) reported that poverty incidence in the Philippines stood at 26.9 percent in 2006 from 24.4 percent in 2003. –Darwin G. Amojelar Senior Reporter