The Final Four

Gilbert Teodoro’s proclamation as the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD’s nominee for the presidential elections in May 2010 marked the end of the elimination process and ushered in the political equivalent of the Final Four.

The other participants are for the Liberal Party, Benigno Aquino III; for the Nacionalista Party, Manuel Villar; and for the Partido ng Masang Pilipino-UNO, Joseph Estrada.

Volatile developments

The volatile developments over the NPC resulted in Chiz Escudero leaving and Loren Legarda taking the vice presidential slot ticket with Manny Villar, and in effect, removing the NPC from the presidential race.

Independent candidates

We have removed from consideration those running as independents and/or without registered political parties, for the reason that these candidates may not be able to sustain the considerable spending attendant to a national campaign.

Outspent by 4:1

An independent candidate may spend up to a maximum of P5 per registered voter, or P250 million assuming a voter registration of 50 million, while a party supported candidate can spend P10 per registered voter, P5 for the political party itself, P3 each for governor, congressman and mayor or a total of P24 per voter times 50 million, it will bring the total of P1.2 billion. See Section 13 of Republic Act 7166. The independent candidate can be legally outspent by a ratio of slightly more than 4:1. In our judgment, that is too much of a handicap to overcome at the highest level of elections.

Smaller field

Now that the field is smaller, we can readily assess the prospects and potential problems of each candidate and perhaps do a pre-tournament ranking before the actual elections take place.

ETR, CSR, PMV

Our rankings are based on three factors: the first would be the electoral track record (ETR) of the candidate where we assign a value of 38 percent; the second would be the composite survey results (CSR) — the last two surveys of Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations with a value of 34 percent and the third would be the party machine votes (PMV), political parties are ranked according to the number of members, congressmen, governors, mayor and other elected local officials and an estimated number of deliverable votes to the party’s national candidates only, where we place a value of 28 percent due to the murky and confused situation of the political parties at the moment.

Erap — best record

Joseph Estrada has the best electoral record of the entire field. He is the only candidate who has run for the position and garnered more than 10.8 million votes. That record is still to be broken and this is not speculative or scientific “guessing” as one expert would put it “… Estrada’s record stands until somebody else beats him, the only way you can take his crown away is by beating him in an actual election… surveys alone won’t do.” The ranking is as follows:

1. Estrada — won as president, 1998

2. Villar — won as senator, No. 4, 2007

3. Aquino — won as senator, No. 7, 2007

4. Teodoro — won as three-time representative, 1998 to 2004

Noynoy’s turn

Surveys are supposed to be snapshots of an actual situation. It simply suggests the sentiments of a representative sample of preferences. It will and usually changes as the campaign begins. But nowadays, surveys are used by professionals and businessmen as a tool for decision making, as well as a guide on whom to support. For lack of any other standard measure, surveys are treated as gospel truth in the business community.

The rankings indicate Noynoy’s margins are wide:

1. Aquino

2. Villar

3. Estrada

4. Teodoro

Gilbert’s troops

Being the largest party in terms of membership, although hit lately by major defections, it is still a formidable force. Lakas has 37 percent, PMP-PDP has 34 percent, LP has 27 percent, NP has 23 percent. With the non-participation of the NPC, its own forces scattered to the four other parties with an undecided of 2 percent.

The rankings indicate there is Lakas strength in the rural areas:

1. Teodoro

2. Estrada

3. Aquino

4. Villar

Estrada is 1 in ETR, 3 in CSR and 2 in PMV. Aquino is 1 in CSR, 3 in ETR and 3 in PMV. Villar is 2 in ETR, 2 in CSR and 4 in PMV. Teodoro is 1 in PMV, 4 in ETR and 4 in CSR.

No election scenario

As political maneuvers increase, there are persistent whispers of no election scenario. Fear not. Elections are going to happen. The evildoers may prevail but only temporarily. An enraged citizenry would not put up with it. Certainly they cannot rule for long. Nelson Navarro, biographer of the late Emmanuel Pelaez, a writer of note, and an occasional political analyst, said it best, “Filipinos don’t really love democracy, they only love elections.” With nearly 380,000 Filipinos filing certificates of candidacy for various positions in 2004, who can dispute that? –Antonio Gatmaitan, Daily Tribune