Fight for the center

As in a chess game, the contestants in the coming electoral contest will attempt to control the center of the chess board early on, to give each major piece room to maneuver and execute its given task as the match progresses. The core of the political territory in the electoral chessboard is no other than the seven provinces, namely, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac and Zambales, otherwise known as Central Luzon or Region III.

Third largest region in the country

In 2007, they accounted for 5,104,171 votes, third largest region in terms of votes comparable to Southern Tagalog which was pegged at 5,994,720 and Metro Manila which had a voting population of 5,534,716.

An uptick for Gilbert

Conventional wisdom suggests an uptick in Lakas-Kampi candidate Gilbert Teodoro’s numbers in Central Luzon. It is after all his home having served as representative of the 1st District of Tarlac, undefeated for three terms. Fluent in Ilocano, he has the obvious sympathies of the Ilocano speaking population all over Region III. There are significant pockets in the northern and western parts of Tarlac, so with Nueva Ecija and many towns in Zambales.

Pampanga

And then there is Pampanga, where GMA reigns supreme. Except for Oscar Rodriguez of San Fernando who supports Noynoy Aquino, the overwhelming number of local officials is in support of Gilbert Tedoro’s presidential candidacy.

Aurora

Aurora Gov. Bella Angara Castillo and Sonny Angara, the son of Sen. Ed Angara, the representative from the lone district of the province, are for a Gilbert Teodoro-Loren Legarda ticket.

Bataan and the 4Gs

In Bataan, the 4Gs, Gov. Tet Garcia, with a son and a daughter running for Congress and another son running for city mayor of Balanga, are running against a team from a coalition formed by former SBMA Chairman Felicisimo Payumo Jr., Ding Roman of the NPC and Tony and Herminia Roman the incumbent representative, now thrown out by the ruling Lakas party, in favor of Angela Garcia. This group is said to be for Noynoy Aquino. Insiders say that while the Garcias are nominally for Lakas, they have forged an alliance with the NPs by forming a local party Balikatan to accept donations for their local campaign.

Zambales

In Zambales, Vic Magsaysay is running for mayor of Olongapo City while Milagros “Mitos” Magsaysay, a daughter in-law, incumbent congressman is running against Ann Gordon. Rep. Tony Diaz remains in the other district. Their candidate for governor is Hermogenes Ebdane Jr. causing the withdrawal of Rose Magsaysay, a daughter of Vic Magsaysay. With Ebdane as an ally, the Magsaysays are hopeful they can dislodge Gov. Amor Deloso, the LP provincial chairman. Mitos was an early supporter of Teodoro, and will continue to pay a crucial role in the presidential campaign, as she expects to defeat Ann Gordon handily.

Bulacan

The fight is between Lakas candidate Rep. Wifredo Sy Alvarado and comebacking Josie Mendoza Cruz, who is reportedly for Noynoy Aquino. Obet Pagdanganan who recently won his protest as governor of Bulacan is contesting for a seat in Congress for the 2010 elections against deposed Governor Mendoza.

Nueva Ecija

It is the Umalis vs the Josons. The Josons are playing it smart. They are preserving their big guns for the next fight. Boyet Joson is going back as mayor of Quezon, while wife Josefina will remain in Congress. Edno Joson is not running and they are fielding Vice Gov. Tommy Joson III as their bet against an incumbent. Tommy III is clearly the underdog but is expected to give the incumbent a good fight.

Surprise ending

Can Gilbert Teodoro perform better in Central Luzon and beat President Gloria Arroyo? I don’t believe so. Can Noynoy Aquino beat GMA in Central Luzon? Maybe, maybe not. Did FPJ beat GMA in Central Luzon in 2004? Aurora, FPJ 43 vs GMA 19; Bataan, FPJ 171 vs GMA 86; Bulacan, FPJ 505 vs GMA 238; Nueva Ecija, FPJ 477 vs GMA 181; Pampanga, FPJ 85 vs GMA 643; Tarlac, FPJ 187 vs GMA 211; Zambales, FPJ 112 vs GMA 44. (These votes are in the thousands). With virtually no organization, no party to speak of, no leaders of note in the 2004 campaign, FPJ was able to beat the GMA machine by at least a few hundred thousand votes in Central Luzon. Georgie Antonio, a partisan but an analytical friend, said “In 2010 we will do it again. Central Luzon is Erap country.” –Daily Tribune