Government confident economy will grow 0.9% in fourth quarter

MANILA, Philippines – The government is confident the economy would grow by at least 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of the year, which would bring full-year growth to at least 0.8 percent, the lower end of the official target range of 0.8 percent to 1.8 percent.

In his year-end economic briefing yesterday, Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Augusto Santos said that growth remains positive with agriculture and services sectors expanding by 1.3 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, as of the third quarter of the year.

“At the very least, the economy will exhibit positive growth and that it will not go into a recession,” Santos told reporters.

Santos said that compared to some of its neighbors, the country’s growth in the third quarter is still better. South Korea and Singapore, for instance, both grew by 0.6 percent from July to September.

Furthermore, according to data presented by the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), Thailand’s economy contracted by 2.8 percent while Taiwan’s economy contracted by 1.3 percent during the third quarter.

Santos said a 0.9 percent growth is possible because of Christmas spending and early election expenses by political parties.

He said growth in the agriculture and services sectors could also drive economic growth in the fourth quarter of the year.

In the first three quarters of the year, the Philippine economy grew by 0.7 percent.

The Philippine economy, as measured by the country’s GDP, grew by a meager 0.8 percent in the third quarter of the year from 4.6 percent recorded a year ago and slower than the official forecast range for the period of 1.6 percent to 2.6 percent.

For the full-year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Philippine economy to grow by 1.5 percent, the World Bank by 1.4 percent and the Asian Development Bank by one percent.

The Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) and the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) put the country’s full-year growth at one percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.

For 2010, the government expects the economy to grow anywhere from 2.6 percent to 3.6 percent.

The government’s emerging growth estimates for next year are similar to the estimates of multilateral and private institutions.

The IMF’s 2010 growth forecast for the Philippines is 3.5 percent, the World Bank, 3.1 percent and the ADB, 3.3 percent.

The DBS and UBS put the country’s economic growth next year at 4.8 percent to five percent, respectively. –Iris C. Gonzales (The Philippine Star)