Job prospects weak in 2010

DUE to the extent of the global economic crisis and the continued increase in the Philippine labor force, the country may experience a continued increase in the number of underemployed and unemployed until the end of 2010, according to local economists.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) on Tuesday released the October edition of the Labor Force Survey (LFS), which showed that the number of underemployed and unemployed Filipinos increased by 1.040 million to 9.594 million in October 2009 from 8.554 million in October 2008.

NSO data showed that in October, there were 6.875 million underemployed Filipinos, an increase of 846,000 from 6.029 million.

In terms of unemployment, there were 2.719 million unemployed in October 2009, an increase of 191,000 from 2.525 million in the same period last year.

In separate interviews with the BusinessMirror, University of the Philippines professors Dr. Rene Ofreneo, Dr. Benjamin Diokno and Leonor Magtolis-Briones said they expect the ill effects of the crisis on the country’s labor force to continue until 2010 and possibly until 2014.

Ofreneo said that due to the effects of the typhoons and the weak global trade, jobs in the country were threatened and lost in 2009. He said it would take some time before the real economy recovers, causing the increase in the number of people looking for permanent or part-time jobs.

The director of the UP School of Labor and Industrial Relations (Solair) Center for Labor Justice also cited, as basis for the possibility that 2010 will see more Filipinos joining the underemployed and unemployed, the projection of the International Labor Organization (ILO) that a jobs recovery will happen only sometime in 2011 and/or 2012.

“We will continue to reel from the effects of the crisis until 2010 due to low investments in the Philippines, as well as natural and political disasters like the Maguindanao massacre and martial law,” Ofreneo said.

For his part, Diokno said that structural problems in the economy and weak external demand for labor, job prospects in the country may continue to be weak until 2014.

He explained that Filipinos looking for jobs might increase due to external factors like the problem in Dubai where thousands of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) work. If the OFWs lose their jobs in Dubai, many of them will be forced to go back to the Philippines and add to those looking for temporary or permanent employment.

Diokno said another reason is the fact that the labor force continues to grow every year.

The growing number of new entrants to the labor force, which is estimated between 1.3 million to 1.5 million annually, is in step with the country’s population growth rate.

“The long-term job market outlook is cloudy. There are two major pressure points for the Philippines job market. First, the weak recovery of labor-importing countries may slow the demand for [OFWs]. The Dubai fiasco is a grim reminder that the world crisis isn’t over yet. Similar signs can be read from slowing Greece, Spain and even the US, Japan and Europe,” Diokno said.

“The second factor is the growing new entrants to the labor force as a result of the Philippines’ high population growth rate,” the former budget secretary added.

Meanwhile, Briones, a former National Treasurer, said job prospects could be especially grim in the first quarter of 2010, owing to seasonality.

From January to March, the government does not have funds and will be engaged in deficit spending since tax revenues only come in April.

With the weak economic environment, the ideal way is for the government to spend and create temporary or permanent employment for Filipinos. However, Briones said that with the fiscal position of the government, spending to create jobs might not be enough.

“January to March is really a bad time because the government doesn’t have funds. There may be a temporary respite in December with an increase in temporary-job offerings but these may not last until January since these jobs are mostly related to the holidays like jobs offered in tiangge [flea market],” Briones said.

She said the figures released by the NSO only reflect the true state of the economy. Employment is the most reliable indicator of whether the economy is in good shape.

“These numbers belie assumptions that the global recovery is not being felt in the Philippines,” Briones said.

The NSO data showed more than half, or 59.4 percent, of the total underemployed were reported as visibly underemployed or working for less than 40 hours during the reference week. The NSO said those working for 40 hours or more accounted for 37.9 percent of the total underemployed.

Data showed that around 46.4 percent of the underemployed were working in the agriculture sector and 38.5 percent in the services sector. The underemployed in the industry sector accounted for 15 percent.

In unemployment, the National Capital Region (NCR) posted the highest rate at 11.8 percent and lowest in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) at 1.8 percent.

The number of unemployed was higher among males at 63.8 percent than among females with 36.2 percent. About one-half, or 50.3 percent, of the unemployed were in age group 15-24 years.

Across educational groups among the unemployed, the high-school graduates comprised more than one-third or 34.7 percent, the college undergraduates comprised about one-fifth or 21.7 percent, while the college graduates, 18 percent.

On the other hand, the economy was able to provide 944,000 more Filipinos jobs in October, which increased the number of employed individuals to 35.477 million from last year’s 34.533 million.

Across regions, data showed that ARMM posted the highest employment rate at 98.2 percent, followed closely by Cagayan Valley and Zamboanga Peninsula, both registering at 97.2 percent. The NCR had the lowest at 88.2 percent.

Of the estimated 35.5 million employed persons in October 2009, the NSO said the services sector was the largest employer, getting more than half, or 51.5 percent, of the total employed population. The highest employed work force in the services sector were in wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods.

The agriculture sector was the second-largest employer, accounting for 34 percent of the total employed. The NSO said that only 14.5 percent of the total employed were in the industry sector.

Among the various occupation groups, laborers and unskilled workers comprised the largest proportion, or 32.5 percent, of the total employed population. Farmers, forestry workers and fishermen were the second-largest group, accounting for 16.4 percent of the total employed population.   –Cai U. Ordinario / Reporter, Businessmirror