Time to go nuke…or not?

Many countries are now opting for nuclear power to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and address global warming. Will the Philippines follow suit?

MANILA, Philippines – When Martial Law strongman Ferdinand Marcos pushed for the construction of the Philippines’s first and only nuclear power plant in 1977, the reception was far from warm. Not only did the project entail large sums of foreign loans, it also involved a still-developing technology which was initially used as weapons of destruction during the Second World War.

Fast forward to the new millennium, nuclear energy is now being considered as a viable and clean energy option. What was then considered as a dangerous energy source is fast becoming a strong alternative to minimize oil dependency and global warming.

A nuclear future

According to a study made by the United Kingdom Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, nuclear power produces the least number of carbon dioxide emissions

Six decades after the first time electricity was generated by nuclear reactors in 1951, 30 countries are sourcing their energy needs from 436 nuclear reactors worldwide.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), almost 15% of the world’s electricity requirements are being filled by nuclear power plants. Major nuclear power users are United States, France, and Japan.

Further, 43 more nuclear power plants under construction and 372 more were being planned and proposed.

Among Asian countries, the Philippines was the first to explore the possibility of harnessing nuclear power in the 70s.

The World Nuclear Association has identified Asia as the only region in the world which experiences significant growth in nuclear power generating capacities. There are currently 111 nuclear reactors in operation and 171 more to be constructed in east and south Asia.

Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are also gearing toward a nuclear future. According to reports, Thailand is planning to build a 4,000MWe (megawatts of energy) plant by 2020 amid strong opposition from local anti-nuke activists.

China for its part already has 16 nuclear plants under construction while India and Korea are adding 6 more plants each in their energy grids.

Mothballed nuclear power plants around the world, like the tragic case of the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP), are also being studied for rehabilitation.

Energy shortage

Critics considered the BNPP as a Marcos’s knee-jerk reaction to the oil crisis of 1973, a time when all of the country’s electricity resource was dependent on crude oil. (See Timeline on Nuclear Power in the Philippines)

The plant, however, was mothballed even before it was allowed to produce a single watt of energy and was popularly dubbed as a white elephant. The BNPP was supposedly the Marcos administration’s answer to the country’s power shortage of the 90s.

As early as 1997, the energy department has anticipated a possible energy shortage that will manifest itself in 2012. Similarly, the DOE has prepared a comprehensive nuclear program for a possible rehabilitation of the BNPP as early as 2010.

However, due to strong resistance from critics and civil societies, the government under President Fidel Ramos opted to convert the plant to either coal or natural gas. The bidding ended as a failure and the plant was placed in conservation mode.

Philippine energy mix as of 2006

The BNPP’s nuclear reactor is capable of producing 620 mega watts of baseload electricity that can be increased to 1,500MWe.

The 620MWe energy from the plant can power up around 3,400 households. This computation is based on the average household consumption of 180 kilowatt per hour in the franchise area of the biggest power retailer, Manila Electric Co.

Baseload sources are power plants capable of producing electricity around the clock, an advantage against some renewable sources, which can only supply electricity for certain periods of time and requires expensive maintenance.

Some power plants with renewable energy sources in Luzon are the Tiwi-Makban geothermal plants in Albay, Legaspi; the Bangui wind power plant in La Union; and the Montalban Methane Power Plant in Rizal.

Geothermal power plants requires yearly maintenance periods, each possibly taking 1 to 2 months. Same goes for wind powered plants. Moreover, wind energy is not very reliable because sometimes, there is not enough wind to power up the turbines.

According to Mauro Marcelo, head of the BNPP Asset Preservation Group under the National Power Corporation (Napocor), there are three sources of baseload energy: coal, natural gas, and nuclear.

In order to reach energy self-sufficiency, the energy mix should be diverse and generating capacities should be increased to match demands. Limited capacities result to shortages and eventually, to power crises.

To secure continuous energy supply, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) requires a 20% reserve margin of baseload energy. As early as 2008, parts of the country have already been experiencing power shortages.

Marcelo quoted a report from Napocor’s power economics department wherein the country’s baseload capacity is already below the comfortable zone as early as March of this year. Moreover, there are expected shortages that need to be addressed in the coming years. (Read: What energy shortage? Reyes estimates confusing)

Temporary solution

Marcelo sees the mothballed BNPP as a temporary solution to the impending energy crisis, an idea that does not sit well with the critics of the plant.

Geothermal was the more preferred option. Early this year, some professors from the University of the Philippines recommended the construction of geothermal power plants instead of reviving BNPP. (Read: UP professors push geothermal as better and cheaper option to nuclear power)

However, like hydro, geothermal are “semi-baseload,” which means energy produced from these plants can be stocked up, Marcelo explains.

Moreover, each power options have its cons. Coal power plants are the cheapest and easiest to build but it is also the dirtiest source of energy. Natural gas sources, on the other hand, are limited. The Malampaya Natural Gas facility is enough to power 30% of the country’s electricity demand, but only until 2022.

Even though the Philippines ranked second in the world in terms of geothermal sources, Marcelo said “it is erratic and the ones left for exploration are small.” Further, geothermal and hydro power plants are very expensive and take up to 7 years to complete.

Hydro power plants also cover large tracts of land and entails relocating communities, which are also very costly. Also, Marcelo quips that hydro plants are also used as water sources and water is always prioritized than electricity.

Big hydropower plants are also not without hazards. The major flooding in Pangasinan and nearby provinces during the onslaught of tropical storm Pepeng (international name Ketsana) were attributed, to some extent, to waters released from the San Roque and Pantabangan dams up north. (Read: ‘Freak of nature,’ not just dams caused North Luzon floods)

“The BNPP can be used as a temporary solution to the power crisis because we think it can be used for a short period of time, until we have built enough generating capacity,” Marcelo said.

Still, Francisco Viray, chair of TransAsia Oil and former energy secretary, begged to differ. An active proponent of renewable energy, he stressed that renewable sources can fill the energy shortage. The bigger question, he said, was whether the country is building renewable energy capacities in preparation for the looming scarcity.

Ready for nuke?

In the BNPP’s long history, critics have constantly raised the specter of geological hazards like active fault lines and possible volcanic activities underneath the plant.

To a certain extent, strong opposition from civil societies since the heydays of the Chernobyl accident and the alleged corruption tarnished not just BNPP but nuclear power itself.

The hardest part of using nuclear energy in power generation is selling the concept to the people, Viray commented. “All the issues from the safety to waste disposal had to be overcome first. I guess the government should start on an information campaign to sell the benefits of having a nuclear power plant to the people,” he added.

Pangasinan representative Mark Cojuangco, however, believes that rehabilitating the mothballed plant is a step forward for the exploration of nuclear energy in the country. In 2007, he proposed a bill that seeks to re-commission and rehabilitate the mothballed plant.

Cojuangco also believes that acceptance for the plant will come once the country’s energy rates are not as high as today. He also admitted that BNPP will only lessen the over-all cost of energy if nuclear is the main driver of the energy sector.

“But there always has to be a transition. Rehabilitating BNPP will open the door for further nuclear power studies and improvements in infrastructure and technologies,” Cojuangco said. “I hope the next president will be open to nuclear and make technically-correct decisions.”

Marcelo, who was first assigned at the BNPP when he entered Napocor in 1979, is confident nuclear energy will become an option for the future. He has yet to see the end of the long and bitter road BNPP was and is still undertaking. “I’m not sure when but I am confident it [the bill] will be passed. It’s high time we talk about nuclear energy,” Marcelo said. –Leilani Chavez, abs-cbnNEWS.com