Beating the odds

Last year, Professor Solita “Winnie” Monsod came out with a three-part assessment in another broadsheet of how the President did on her original BEAT THE ODDS agenda. Monsod gave the President a dismal grade of 47 out of 100.

I sent that broadsheet my reply but it never got published. It seems like you have to have your own column somewhere else in order to get equal airtime around certain newspaper publishers.

Which is why this will be my maiden column in The Manila Standard Today —one that I hope I will have the time to write with the regularity and quality that you, dear readers, deserve.

I was bothered by the faulty facts and reasoning in Winnie’s column. I know it was simply a light-hearted piece of pop journalism, but these things take on a life of their own unless corrected quickly.

Thus, here’s my own grading sheet on the President’s BEAT THE ODDS agenda, using Winnie’s own criteria:

B-alanced budget: Winnie gave the President 100; so do I.

E-ducation for all: I agree with Winnie’s high marks for educational infrastructure, but why did she give a very low score of 19 for elementary participation rate with a very high target of 80 percent? That’s such a cute way to flunk the President with a grade of 37.

This target has been refined as Millennium Development Goal to mean 100 percent in preschool by 2010 and elementary by 2015. Progress was slow on elementary—one reason the President formed an education task force—but preschool enrollment grew by over 8 percent per annum since 2001. This is a rate faster than the population growth.

I give the President a score of 60 on participation rate and give it a weigh the same as her high infrastructure scores, for a final grade of 92.

A-utomated elections: Winnie gave the President only 50 on this because she said it could still “go either way.” But Mrs. Arroyo has already signed two laws to prescribe and fund automation and backed them with budget funds. From now on it’s no longer her job, it’s the Commission on Election’s. Her part of the mission is accomplished, final grade 100.

T-ransport & digital infrastructure: Winnie gave the President only 25 for the digital highway because of the national broadband network- ZTE issue. That’s a non sequitur and one for the books. Business process outsourcing would not have become our newest sunrise sector without the information and communication technology advances under Mrs. Arroyo. I give a grade at least as good as what Winnie awarded for her nautical highways, 90.

(We’re not even talking here about her roads and airports.)

T-erminating NPA/MILF hostilities: It takes two to tango; both sides must share the credit or debit. The President has done her share: the National Democratic Front negotiators were given immunities to return to Manila, and a government ceasefire was declared while the Moro Islamic Liberation Front finally decided to return to the table; discussions are now ongoing. I give the President a 75 on this.

H-ealing EDSA wounds: Another tango partnership, between the President and those who can choose to hurt or heal from EDSA. On human rights, we get a mixed picture at worst from the international poo-bahs. On military reforms and community consultations, yes, these are works in progress.

But Winnie, why a grade of only 6? Professor, you’ve got to start healing, too. My take: no worse than 50.

E-lectricity and water for all: Top scores for electrification, but then Winnie unaccountably sliced it by half because of some unexplained “international measurement of households”.

A score from her of only 5 for water? But the record shows 215 communities improved within Metro Manila (target: 274) and 302 towns outside Metro Manila (target: 432).

I rate water the same as the above achievement rates of 75 percent, for a final grade 90.

O-pportunity to create 10 million jobs: There have been 14.2 million jobs created so far, way above target. Sure, I’ve heard grumblings about the quality and tenure of some of those jobs. So let’s be conservative and give her (even if she performed above target) a less-than-perfect grade of 95.

D-econgest Metro Manila: Winnie only saw—and scored the President low for —the unfinished North and South rail projects leading out of Metro Manila. But what about the Marikina-Infanta road (over two-thirds done), South Luzon Expressway extension, and Skyway 2 projected to finish this year, among others?

As for relocating selected government agencies outside Metro Manila, almost all of them have already set up satellite offices. The Department of Transportation and Communication will follow later this year.

With these developments, I’d improve Winnie’s grade from 35 to 60.

D-evelop S-ubic Clark hub: Top scores for the Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway, but only 35 from Winnie for everything else. A bit unkind, especially if you look at the heavy hitters now calling on Ed Pamintuan—people like Hanjin, Hebei Jingniu, SIA—the list of investors goes on. I’d rate them good for a score of 60, overall grade 80.

Add up all my scores and you get a much fairer grade for the President: 83.

Now let’s go a step further and rearrange the weight assignments. After all, “healing EDSA wounds” can’t be as important as, say, “education for all”.

Instead, group together EDSA and NPA/MILF as “reconciliation”; transport, digital, electricity, and water into one “infrastructure”; decongestion and Subic-Clark into “regionalization”.

With these, the adjusted grade for the President becomes 87 (see table).

At the end of her piece, Professor Monsod slipped in a dark coda about sins of the President—on corruption, human rights, demoralized civil service. This was great copy, but where were the facts to support any grades?

Here’s a better coda:

Thirty-six straight quarters of growth. That’s one for the books.

Our country escaped a global recession that’s taken down most of everyone else. Another one for the books.

Lower debt, low interest rates and high liquidity, strong fiscal fundamentals. Just ask the rating agencies.

As Sgt Joe Friday would say: just the facts please, ma’m. Just the facts.

Mr Olivar is Presidential Economic Spokesperson and an adjunct finance professor at AIM. He earned graduate degrees in economics and business from UP and Harvard. His column Bypass will appear every Tuesday. He can be reached at gbolivar1952@gmail.com.