Bong overtakes Jinggoy in Senate race – SWS

MANILA, Philippines – Re-electionist Sen. Ramon Revilla Jr. has topped the latest survey on senatorial bets of the Social Weather Stations (SWS), taking the lead from Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada.

The survey, conducted from Jan. 21 to 24, also found that nine out of 12 probable winners are from opposition parties.

The poll, commissioned by BusinessWorld, showed that nearly six in 10 Filipino adults or 58 percent would vote for Revilla, a member of the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD.

Senators Pia Cayetano of the Nacionalista Party (NP) and Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) were tied at second/third place in the latest survey with 57 percent each.

Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago of the People’s Reform Party was fourth with 50 percent.

Former senator Franklin Drilon of the Liberal Party (LP) ranked fifth with 47 percent, followed by Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (sixth) and former Dangerous Drugs Board chair Vicente Sotto III (seventh) with 42 percent and 41 percent, respectively.

Former senator Ralph Recto of the LP was eighth with 40 percent.

Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is in 9th place with 39 percent.

Former senator Sergio Osmeña III was 10th with 38 percent.

Another LP bet, Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto Guingona III, was 11th with 31 percent of respondents’ votes.

NBN-ZTE scandal whistleblower Jose de Venecia III was in 12th place with 30 percent.

The respondents were asked: “If elections were to take place today, whom will you most probably vote for as Senators of the Philippines? Here is a list of names of the candidates. You can mention up to 12 names.”

The survey used face-to-face interviews of 2,100 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

Noynoy vows to work harder

LP standard-bearer Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III vowed yesterday to work harder and campaign more to improve his lead over NP presidential bet Sen. Manuel Villar Jr.

Aquino made the statement after SWS released the latest survey commissioned by BusinessWorld that showed Aquino still leading the presidential race with 42 percent but his margin had narrowed over Villar, who got 35 percent in the survey conducted last Jan. 21 to 24 using face-to-face interviews with 2,100 adult respondents.

Aquino’s lead over Villar was 19 percentage points in a survey conducted last Dec. 5 to 10 and 11 points in the Dec. 27 to 28 survey.

Sen. Manuel Roxas II, Aquino’s running mate, obtained 49 percent and increased his lead over Villar’s vice presidential bet, Sen. Loren Legarda, who got 28 percent.

Aquino said SWS gave him a summary of the survey that showed the votes for him went to the undecided and not necessarily to his rivals.

He cited the heavy advertisements of Villar, especially on television, in a media war that he could win only through the campaigning of his volunteers because he could not afford to come up with the same number of infomercials.

Aquino said his rivals, including Malacañang, had ganged up on him in the past months with their black propaganda, and had been making it hard for LP organizers to conduct meetings and assemblies with their supporters.

He disclosed that it took a long time before the party could find a venue because they were not given permits in Pasig and Marikina cities.

Aquino said he was grateful that more than 40 percent still preferred him to his rivals despite the attacks and the lack of infomercials.

He said the attacks against him created doubts, which they could now address more effectively.

Aquino said they would reach out more by explaining to the people his qualifications and his platform.

“This way we can win back the support lost. When will that happen? When the actual campaigning starts and our volunteers start to answer the questions of voters,” Aquino said.

“This is a reminder that we have to work really hard,” Aquino said.

Aquino said they would also have to come up with a better organization and system of campaigning.

“We must also admit that the rival has been preparing for the last three years, while on my part, it’s only been five months,” Aquino said.

He said “imaging” through infomercials seemed to be working for Villar too.

“I understand it’s more of the imaging. The ratio of the ads is 7:1, Villar has seven, I have one,” Aquino said.

Aquino said they would come up with better ads and try to make the ratio 7:3 since it was impossible to make 7:7 because they would not want to spend all their funds on infomercials. He said the expenses on election day itself and the guarding of votes would be no joke.

Aquino said the C-5 road controversy might not have affected Villar yet in the SWS survey but he added there were many groups who said they now understood it and this might have a negative effect on the NP bet in the coming days.

He said that there is something wrong with the proposal of Villar and that after all the money spent by the government, the road project is still not finished.

“Maybe the people will understand the issue more easily if we make visual presentations, maps and pictures and show them this was what really happened,” Aquino said.

Aquino said the issue was not really easy to understand, and he too had to read the materials over and over again.

“What more those who do not have access to data?” Aquino asked.

Former President Joseph Estrada said yesterday the SWS survey is not credible.

He said that in the 2004 exit polls, the SWS predicted that President Arroyo would win by a landslide against his friend, the late movie actor Fernando Poe Jr. (FPJ).

“All I can say, we will compare the exit poll of SWS wherein they predicted that GMA will win in Metro Manila in 2004. But FPJ won in 16 out of 17 municipalities. GMA only won in Las Piñas. That is an inaccurate survey. How can you say the survey of SWS is credible? That is a big blunder,” Estrada said.

Estrada said the SWS survey is not credible because the camp of Villar commissioned the survey.

“I believe so,” Estrada said when asked if he thinks that the Pulse Asia survey is credible.

“Let’s wait for the result of Pulse Asia,” Estrada said.

Speaker Prospero Nograles expressed confidence yesterday that administration standard-bearer Gilbert Teodoro, who is trailing in the surveys, will finally catch up in what basketball enthusiasts call the “last two minutes.”

“Politics here is always decided on the last two minutes. Elections in this country can turn overnight. Surveys are just indications,” he told Congress reporters in a press conference.

Nograles, a member of the advisory council of Lakas-Kampi-CMD, cited the May 2004 presidential elections where the frontrunner was always Poe, while Mrs. Arroyo ranked only second.

Malacañang said that a campaign anchored on attacks against the President will not prosper and will even work against the candidate.

Deputy presidential spokesperson Gary Olivar noted that the latest SWS survey on presidential bets was proof of this argument as it showed the anti-Arroyo candidates losing ground.

He said that Filipino voters are now more careful in choosing their leaders and would rather hear about accomplishments and platforms than a hate campaign against Mrs. Arroyo.

Three million votes

Roxas said the LP’s crusade for reforms and good governance continued to make its impact on the public as he and Aquino still topped the SWS pre-election survey.

This is the fifth pre-election survey conducted by the SWS, one of the country’s most credible polling firms, where the Aquino-Roxas tandem led.

“The seven percent difference between Aquino’s and Villar’s ratings would amount to about three million votes if all 49 million Filipino will vote on May 10,” Roxas said.

In the survey, former president Estrada placed third with a rating of 13 percent while Teodoro grabbed the fourth slot, with four percent, followed by Sen. Richard Gordon and evangelist Bro. Eddie Villanueva, who both got two percent rating.

LP said the huge 21 percent lead of Roxas over Legarda would be equivalent to nine million votes if all 49 million registered voters would vote in May 10.

Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay, Estrada’s running mate, is third with 16 percent, followed by former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando and former Optical Media Board head Edu Manzano, who each got two percent.

The Aquino-Roxas tandem has been enjoying huge leads in all pre-election surveys conducted by credible polling firms in the country, including university mock polls done in various schools nationwide.

The leadership of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) pledged their support to the party’s vice presidential bet Legarda to ensure her victory in the May 10 polls.

NPC spokesman Rex Gatchalian said they are completely behind Legarda, the party’s candidate for vice president, and that they have “unflinching support” for her.

“We stand solidly behind Senator Loren in her bid to capture the vice presidency in the May elections. The NPC is working very hard and leaving nothing to chance in the coming elections,” Gatchalian said.

Meanwhile, a survey conducted by StratPolls Inc. from Jan. 16 to 22 showed Aquino with 36 percent, while Villar garnered 26 percent, Estrada got 15 percent and Teodoro finally notched a double-digit figure with 11 percent.

Gordon got 5 percent, Villanueva 4 percent, Madrigal one percent and John Carlos delos Reyes, 0.25 percent.

Some 1.75 percent of the 2,400 respondents remained undecided.

StratPolls executive director Alfredo Sureta Jr. said what was different in the survey they conducted was that they asked respondents why they would vote for a certain candidate.

Sureta said the respondents were first asked to choose four qualities from a list provided by the pollster. After these qualities were determined, the respondents were then asked whom they would vote for.

The top quality chosen by respondents was “principled person” (62 percent). This was followed by “tried and tested in serving the country” (60 percent); “courageous” (60 percent); “has a good plan/foresight for the country” (58 percent); “pro-poor/helps the marginalized, poor” (54 percent); “good administrator” (37 percent); “good speaker/debater” (25 percent); “popular” (20 percent); “successful businessman” (15 percent); and “scion of a former president” (4 percent).

Aquino, in the January survey, led in the National Capital Region, Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. He also topped among all socio-economic classes.

The ranking for the vice presidential candidates showed that Roxas leads with 47 percent, Legarda (25 percent), Binay (11 percent), Fernando (7 percent), Manzano (5 percent); Dominador Chipeco Jr. (2 percent), Perfecto Yasay (1 percent), and Jay Sonza (1 percent).

Among those who topped the ranking for senatorial candidates were: Santiago (64 percent), Pia Cayetano (50 percent), Marcos (50 percent), Drilon (49 percent), Jinggoy Estrada (49 percent), Revilla (49 percent), and Enrile (43 percent). –Helen Flores (The Philippine Star) With Aurea Calica, Delon Porcalla, Reinir Padua, Jose Rodel Clapano