BSP sees inflation hitting 5% in the next 2 quarters

Monthly inflation rate is expected to reach 5 percent in the second and third quarters of 2010, but still within the full-year target range of 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent, the Bangko Sentral said Friday.

Deputy Gov. Diwa Guinigundo said inflation would average 4.7 percent in 2010 and 3.3 percent in 2011. These rates are higher than the full-year average of 3.2 percent in 2009.

The forecasts had taken into account the anticipated occurrence of mild El Niño phenomenon, which could cause tight supply of agricultural products in the domestic market, he said.

Guinigundo said the forecast also considered the increase in utility cost. “For 2010, we expect some adjustments in power rates and water rates,” he said.

He said the central bank’s inflation forecasts assumed the peso would trade at 46 to 48 against the US dollar this year and 46 to 49 against the greenback next year.

Antonio Cintura, director of the bank’s department of economics, noted that inflation rate softened to 4.3 percent in January from 4.4 percent in December.

Inflation began picking up in the fourth quarter of 2009, as weather-related disturbances led to higher prices of food products and as oil prices moved up in the world market. Roderick T. dela Cruz, Manila Standard Today