Villar catches up with Aquino in latest Manila Standard poll

SENATOR Manuel Villar Jr. is statistically tied with Senator Benigno Aquino III in the race for the presidency, according to the latest Manila Standard Today poll conducted Jan. 20 to 27.

“There was a 10-point drop in voter preference for Aquino and a seven-point increase in voter preference for Villar, making the current standing a tight 36-to-34 for the frontrunners,” said Pedro Laylo Jr., resident pollster at the Standard Today.

The survey, which involved face-to-face interviews with 2,500 registered voters nationwide, had a margin of error of two percentage points, making Villar and Aquino statistically tied, Laylo said.

Deposed President Joseph Estrada also suffered a decline In the latest Standard Today poll, falling to 13 percent from 17 percent in December.

Administration candidate and former defense secretary Gilberto Teodoro remained the same at 5 percent.

Aquino lost ground in Northern Luzon and the Visayas, with Villar gaining most in the south, Laylo said.

The findings of the latest Standard Today poll showed an even more dramatic decline for Aquino in a Jan. 21 to 24 survey by the Social Weather Stations.

In that survey, Villar took 35 percent of the vote, up from 33 percent in late December, while Aquino slipped to 42 percent from 44 percent.

Aquino’s 19-point lead in early December has dropped to just seven points.

Aquino attributed the drop in his rating to the “black propaganda” campaign being waged against him by his adversaries and Villar’s intensified TV and radio advertising.

Aquino added that for every commercial he aired, Villar was running seven.

Senator Manuel Roxas II, Aquino’s running mate, said the 7-point margin would still translate to a margin of 3 million votes if all 49 million voters cast their ballots on May 10.

But the party spokesman for Villar’s Nacionalista Party said it was significant to note that the SWS survey was conducted after Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile released a committee report that recommended Villar be censured for his alleged conflict of interest in a government road project.

“The political opponents of Villar should rethink their tactic of discrediting Senator Villar because the people are not biting,” said Gilbert Remulla, party spokesman and senatorial candidate.

Villar, who has a personal fortune of $530 million according to Forbes magazine, has outspent rival candidates in advertisements that highlight his rise from Manila’s slums. The publicity blitz helped him catch up with Aquino, who shot to pole position after the death of his mother, former President Corazon Aquino, triggered a wave of nostalgia for the family.

Villar “is aiming for the heart: the majority of the electorate is poor,” said Earl Parreno, an analyst at the Institute for Political and Economic Reforms. His TV and radio spending “is a real threat” to Aquino, Parreno said.

In the SWS vice presidential race, Roxas widened his lead over his closest rival, Senator Loren Legarda, taking 49 percent of the vote against Legarda’s 28 percent.

Villar’s rags-to-riches campaign emphasizes the value of hard work and perseverance. As a boy, he helped his mother sell shrimp and fish in Manila’s biggest market, according to a biography on his Web site. He continued working as he earned degrees in business and accounting at the University of the Philippines.

By 1975, he had been running a sand-and-gravel business that led him to building and selling low-priced housing. Villar says he has now built more than 200,000 homes.

Villar won a congressional seat in 1992 and took his C&P Homes Inc. public in 1995. He increased borrowing, selling local-currency bonds in 1996 and dollar-denominated debt in 1997 just before the Asian currency crisis devalued the peso. Two years later, the company halted payments on $350 million of debt.

CMP Homes negotiated with creditors, while Villar rose from speaker of the House of Representatives to senator and then to Senate president. In 2007 most creditors agreed to accept $50 million in new bonds plus shares. Those who didn’t agree got paid 23 cents on the dollar. That same year, he took a new company, Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc., public, raising P21.3 billion. The stock has fallen 75 percent since reaching a record on June 29, 2007.

Villar was ousted as Senate leader in 2008, shortly after Senator Panfilo Lacson raised corruption allegations concerning the C-5 road extension that ran through Villar property. Twelve of 23 senators, including Aquino and other presidential candidates, have recommended censuring him. Villar has denied any wrongdoing.

“If his opponents continue to hammer Villar on the issue, it might hurt,” said Benito Lim, a political science professor at the Ateneo de Manila University. “Aquino may have a problem if he can’t make the issue stick to Villar. His ratings are not improving, they’re going down..”

Aquino, who is better known by his nickname of “Noynoy,” served three terms in the House before winning election to the Senate in 2007. Fel V. Maragay, Bloomberg