SWS exit poll shows Aquino winning race

THE exit poll conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and TV 5 showed Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino 3rd leading the presidential race by a huge margin, just like he was doing in the partial vote tallies of the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

The partial results of the TV5-SWS exit poll covering 22,398 of its targeted 32,000 respondents in 802 polling precincts nationwide gave Aquino 44 percent while his closest opponent, former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada, got 25 percent.

Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr., placed third with 13 percent; Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro, fourth with 11 percent; evangelist Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” Villanueva, fifth with 3 percent; and Sen. Richard “Dick” Gordon, sixth with 2 percent.

Disqualified candidate Vetallano “Dodong” Acosta got 1 percent, surpassing even Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.2 percent), John Carlos de los Reyes (0.2 percent) and Jesus Nicanor “Nick” Perlas (0.1 percent).

Aquino was the most preferred candidate in almost all classifications of voters by class, education and religion. Estrada had a slight lead over him among non-Christian voters who are not Muslims (28 percent versus 26 percent).

In the vice presidential race, Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” Binay of Makati City and Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd both got 40 percent of the votes.

Sen. Loren Legarda had 10 percent, former Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando 3 percent, and former Optical Media Board head Eduardo “Edu” Manzano and Perfecto Yasay, 2 percent each.

Close battle among classes
Roxas led Binay in class ABC (43 percent versus 40 percent) but the latter edged him in class D (41 percent versus 40 percent) and in class E (41 percent versus 33 percent).

The survey results also showed that 47 percent of the voters choose a candidate for his personality, and 44 percent, on the candidate’s platform.

According to SWS, 51 percent of the voters had already decided in February or earlier on whom to vote for president. Some 58 percent also believed that voting was easier now than in the previous elections. However, 26 percent disagreed.

Majority (61 percent) expect the quality of governance to get better under the next administration. Only 2 percent think it will get worse.

Some 52 percent of the respondents also believe that the quality of life will improve in the coming 12 months, while 55 percent think the Philippine economy will also improve (55 percent).

The TV5-SWS exit poll was conducted 50 meters away from 802 polling centers nationwide and with 32,000 respondents. The national sampling error, which is still to be ascertained, is expected to be below 1 percent.

SWS previously conducted exit polls in the national elections of 1995, 1998, 2001 and 2004. Unlike this election’s exit poll, those previous polls were all conducted in the homes of a random sample of respondents who had already voted earlier in the day. –ROMMEL C. LONTAYAO Reporter, Manila Times