The religious vote myth exposed

It should be clear to everyone by now that, except perhaps for the Iglesia ni Cristo, there is no such thing as a “religious vote” in the Philippines.

After the lessons learned in this year’s election perhaps national candidates would be less assiduous in trying to court the support of Pastor Apollo Quiboloy of the Kingdom of Jesus Christ religious sect.

All the presidential candidates tried to get the endorsement of Quiboloy. Some of them went to see him more than once.

Quiboloy, it seems, expects to be paid homage to by the candidates. He expressed strong disappointment when organized Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino and Sen. Manny Villar did not show up for the presidential forum that his sect organized.

The national candidates cannot be blamed for trying their hardest to get the support of Quiboloy. His group claims a membership of six million. If half of that are voters and half of the sect’s voting members follow Quiboloy’s exhortation on whom to vote for, then an endorsed candidate can count on at least 1.5 million votes.

But apparently the six million membership claim is exaggerated and/or the members of the sect are not swayed by Quiboloy’s political endorsement.

The effect of his endorsement of Lakas-Kampi CMD presidential candidate Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro is not apparent in the votes Gibo actually got. In the tally of the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting as of 4:24 p.m. On May 12 for 88.78 percent of clustered precincts, Teodoro has registered a total of 3.6 million votes. It’s hard to believe that a significant portion of that vote is from Quiboloy’s group.

The Catholic charismatic group El Shaddai which claims a membership bigger than Quiboloy’s was not a factor in this election. El Shaddai leader Bro. Mike Velarde did not openly endorse any presidential candidate although he was clearly favoring Villar. Many are convinced now that even if Velarde openly endorsed Villar it would have had little effect on Villar’s vote.

El Shaddai also interviewed and endorsed local candidates but except for the fact that such endorsement made the candidate feel good, there is little measurable effect of the El Shaddai endorsement as far as the votes are concerned.

Perhaps the way to measure how large the El Shaddai vote really is to look at the votes of the party list group Buhay Hayaan Yumabong (Buhay) whose political poster carry the picture of no less than Velarde himself. Velarde is the fifth nominee of Buhay but he has already said that he will replace the party list group’s first nominee and sit in the House of Representatives himself.

In the Comelec count with votes from 88.95 percent of clustered precincts already in, Buhay already has 1.1 million votes. The final Buhay votes are expected to be in the vicinity of 1.3 million and that probably represents all of the El Shaddai votes.

Of course, national candidates should not expect to get a sizable portion of that El Shaddai vote if they’re endorsed by Velarde. The members of El Shaddai have proven in this election and in the past election that they do not have the voting discipline of the members of the INC.

Another religious group that’s active in politics is the Jesus is Lord church. No less than the leader of JIL Bro. Eddie Villanueva ran for President in this election so the best measure of his political clout would be the actual votes that he got.

In the PPCRV count from 88.78 percent of clustered precincts, Villanueva has already obtained 1,012,921 votes. The number already represents not only the votes of JIL members but the votes of other evangelical groups which strongly endorsed his candidacy.

To think that JIL has claimed an attendance of 1.2 million in the May 1 prayer rally cum miting de avance of Villanueva’s Bangon Pilipinas party.

Villanueva’s endorsement of other candidates apparently also has little effect. While he has already garnered more than a million votes, his running mate former SEC Commissioner Perfecto “Jun” Yasay, in the same PPCRV count, has only 327,169.

The senatorial candidates running with Villanueva are also faring poorly and getting votes much less than the JIL leader.

Like Velarde’s El Shaddai, Villanueva’s JIL also has a party closely identified with it. This is the Citizen’s Battle Against Corruption (CIBAC) which first nominee is Villanueva’s son Rep. Joel Villanueva.

In the Comelec count of almost 90 percent of the clustered precincts, CIBAC has 603,100 votes and if you add 10 percent to this, CIBAC will probably get 660,000 in the final count. This is probably the actual voting strength of JIL but again like El Shaddai endorsed national candidate cannot bank that they will get majority of this vote.

The bishops of the dominant Catholic Church have also been proven to be useless political endorsers.

Six members of the Philippine Catholic Church hierarchy —Archbishop Ramon Arguelles of Lipa, Bishop Joseph Nacua of Ilagan, Bishop Antonio Tobias of Novaliches, Bishop Antonio Palang of San Jose de Mindoro, Bishop Antonio Navarra of Bacolod and retired Bishop Teodoro Bacani—have come out to openly endorse the presidential bid of JC de los Reyes of Ang Kapatiran party.

In the latest Comelec count from 88.95 percent of clustered precincts, de los Reyes was ninth of the nine presidential candidates with only 34,833 votes. The five active bishops head dioceses with more than three million votes and all de los Reyes was able to get is a mere fraction of this number. Either the bishops didn’t campaign for de los Reyes or their flock do not heed them at all when it comes to partisan politics.

This is not to say that the Catholic Church did not play a key and crucial role in this election. It did, through the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV) which was the Comelec’s citizen arm in the last election.

It is not an exaggeration to say that the PPCRV played a key role in the success of the last election by providing some 500,000 volunteers to help in the voters’ education campaign, render assistance in the actual elections and conduct a count based on the copy of the returns that they are officially entitled to get.

Among the religious groups, it is only the Iglesia ni Cristo which has proven that it can provide the swing votes in close contests whether for national or local positions.

The contest for the presidency would probably have been closer if the INC endorsed former President Joseph Estrada instead of Senator Noynoy Aquino.

There are only guesstimates on the actual INC vote. Some say it is as low as one million but others say it could be as high as three million. Let’s assume the INC vote is two million. From the trend in the present count, Aquino will probably lead Estrada by 5 million votes. If you subtract two million from Aquino and add two million to Estrada then it could have been a much closer fight and Estrada would have enjoyed the bandwagon effect which could get thousands more votes.

The INC factor was probably most felt in the senatorial race. Of the 12 candidates endorsed by the INC, 11 are in the Magic 12. Of the winning senatorial candidates, only returning candidate—Sen. Serge Osmeña —was not endorsed by INC. The only INC-endorsed candidate outside the Magic 12 is Rep. Ruffy Biazon who in the latest count is in number 14 and apparently has no chance of making it.

Of course not all the candidates endorsed by the INC for local positions won. Re-elected Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim won by a landslide against INC-endorsed candidate former Mayor Lito Atienza.

Winning Cavite Governor Jonvic Remulla won without the INC support. Remulla of course would have wanted the INC support. With that, his lead of 50,000 would surely have been bigger.

For sure Lim, Remulla and the other candidates will continue to woo the INC next time they run. It looks as though the INC vote is the only religious vote that can be counted on in Philippine politics. –Alvin Capino, Manila Standard Today