Relative, not absolute decline

At first glance, it seems that the left suffered something of a setback in the recent elections. For example, not only did Bayan Muna slip in the rankings (as did most the left groups), but it lost votes. However, such a conclusion would be incorrect. Any overall decline was not absolute but relative and, as pointed out last week, largely due to the fact that, since 2007, the total number of party-list votes has dramatically increased, thereby diminishing the left’s share.

The following table shows the votes, rankings and percentages of the various left tendencies since 2004, whether or not they gained seats. As was the case in last week’s column, the figures for 2010 are provisional, as at the time of writing the votes in the special elections in Lanao del Sur, among others, still have to be canvassed.

* A+B+C.

Bayan Muna, formerly the flagship party of what in this election was called the Makabayan group, has in fact suffered a gradual decline from 2001 (not shown in the table), when it garnered 1.7 million votes, to 1.2 million in 2004, 979,189 in 2007, and 746,019 this year, going from first place to second, and now to ninth. Note, however, that while in 2007 this group had only five accredited groups, this year it had six, and its total vote climbed from 2.3 million to over 3 million. It was only to be expected that Bayan Muna would shed votes as its parent organization fielded other, more narrowly-focused, party-list organizations. For example, it is possible that many of the votes given to the Association of Concerned Teachers (ACT) this year were gained at its expense.

With over a million votes, Gabriela now leads the group, while Kabataan (formerly Anak ng Bayan) has almost doubled its vote since 2004, and Anak Pawis has improved on its 2007 performance. COURAGE, which organizes local government workers, was also to be a runner this year, but it was denied accreditation, as was Migrante, which targets OFWs. Katribu, intended for indigenous Filipinos, replaced Suara Bangsamoro this year but failed to improve on the latter’s vote and has yet to gain a seat.

As things stand at the moment, the group has been allocated a total of seven seats. As the number of party-list votes has increased, however, Makabayan’s share has declined from 21.3 percent in 2004, to 14.1 percent in 2007, and 10.21 percent this year.

The groups associated with the late Filemon “Popoy” Lagman have not fared as well. Partido Manggagawa has lost two-thirds of its votes since 2004, its share falling from 3.5 percent to 0.46 percent, while Sanlakas was not accredited this year.

This year’s top-ranking left party is Akbayan, placing fourth and achieving over a million votes and two seats. This will presumably be seen as some compensation for the fact that the party’s Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel, a guest candidate on the Liberal Party ticket, just missed gaining a seat in the Senate. Akbayan, it will be recalled, was the first left party to enter the party-list contest in 1998, when it gained a seat.

We see from the above table that overall the left’s party-list votes declined from 4,184,418 in 2004 to 2,996,457 in 2007, and this year climbed back to 4,294,137. Even so, its share of the party-list vote in 2010 was just 14.8 percent. Once all the party-list seats are filled there will be a total of 57, of which the left will (on current figures) occupy nine – a basis for sober reflection.

There may well be reflection too on the limitations of the party-list system. That may be the subject of a future column. –Ken Fuller, Daily Tribune

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