According to the latest UN Agriculture Outlook 2010-2019, wheat and coarse-grain prices could increase by 15 percent to 40 percent from their price levels during 1997 to 2006. Dairy and vegetable-oil prices are also expected to jump by more than 40 percent.
Agriculture and food security are closely intertwined. A study the UK Department for International Development (DFID) demonstrates that improving agriculture can expand the supply of food affordable to the poor, and improve jobs and income so that people can buy nutritious food. It noted significant wage increases in the provinces of Bangladesh and India after increased agricultural productivity, contributing to the growth of its rural economy, including non-farm sectors.
The DFID’s paper also cited several studies, which showed that a 33-percent increase in harvest could reduce poverty by around 25 percent. Data observed from 48 developing countries showed that for every 1-percent increase in agricultural productivity, there was a corresponding fall of between 0.6 percent and 1.2 percent in the number of people living below the poverty line.
The UN Agriculture Outlook expects agricultural production to slow down compared with its growth during the last decade, but notes that the 70-percent increase in food production necessary to feed the global population by 2050 can still be achieved.
However, the continued decline in agriculture investments, as well as the extreme weather events caused by global warming poses risks to food production and security.
These were among the factors considered in determining the 2010 food-security index, a survey of the food supplies of 163 countries conducted by British risk-analysis firm Maplecroft. The Philippines was grouped among the high-risk countries, ranking 52nd.
To improve our food supply and stabilize food prices, we’ve got to step up our agriculture production and streamline our distribution system.
Crucial to improving agriculture productivity is giving our farmers the support they need, such as access to credit, better infrastructure, good irrigation systems and postharvest network. Instead of depending on imports from our Asian neighbors, we should be allocating more of our budget toward long-term investments to boost our agricultural system. This way we also create sustainable jobs for those in the provinces and drastically reduce poverty and hunger.
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