Neda: Pace of MDGs ‘slow’

AT the current pace of progress in the country’s aim to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) said there are more than 10 indicators and targets that will not be met in five years.

New data from the Neda showed the country’s MDG progress is the slowest when it comes to the gross enrollment rate for primary education, with a pace of progress of negative 10.76 percent; and in halting the spread of new HIV/AIDS cases, which is at negative 14.56 percent.

To compound the planning agencies’ situation, experts confirmed on Wednesday that government statisticians are working with two sets of data: the first obtained using an old methodology, and another one using an adjusted method that some civil-society experts said could “distort” the true picture of poverty and hunger in the country.

The MDG reports—of which three have been made since 2000, when Manila joined nearly 200 heads of state in signing the MDG commitments at the UN—are based on the differing data sets: the first data set (1985-2000) was used as the base for the MDGs; but the statistical agencies later migrated to the second data set (1997 onward), without being able to resolve the gaps arising from that transition.

Meanwhile, officials played down civil-society concern over the changes in definitions for determining poverty and hunger in the country.

It’s not known at this point whether any entity would question the Philippine reporting system, given that the United Nations is said to have not prescribed any rigid standard—“there’s no approved handbook from the UN”—for estimating basic data that’s often used for human development-related indicators and studies.

8 goals, 22 targets

The MDGs are a set of eight goals, 22 quantitative targets and more than 60 specific indicators meant to serve as a focus for international and national development policy.

The first seven goals are concerned with outcomes, identifying the progress toward certain standards of human welfare and development that should be achieved globally and nationally by 2015. The eighth goal is concerned with “global partnership for development” to support the realization of all the goals.

“What you saw earlier from the summary of indicators, many are still in low probability. We have no index showing overall [progress]. Education, maternal mortality and HIV/AIDS are among the new probability. By 2015, those in the medium [probability] could be achieved, but those in the low probability may not be,” Neda Social Development Staff assistant director Cleofe Pastrana told reporters partly in Filipino.

Pastrana said the targets that have a low probability of being achieved include elementary-participation rate, elementary-cohort survival rate, elementary-completion rate, maternal-mortality ratio, access to reproductive-health services, and new HIV and AIDS cases.

The targets with a medium probability of being achieved are poverty, nutrition, dietary, energy requirement and universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS patients.

Pastrana, however, said the country has a high probability of achieving gender equality in education, child mortality, access to safe drinking water, access to sanitary toilet facilities, and reverse the incidence of malaria and other diseases.

In terms of targets, Neda data showed that those with a low probability of being achieved are the maternal-mortality rate target, which has a pace of progress of 0.47 percent, and the universal access to reproductive-health contraceptive prevalence rate, with a pace of progress of 0.25 percent.

Apart from the gross enrollment rate and the new HIV/AIDS cases, other MDG indicators that have a low probability of being achieved or will not be met by 2015 include indicators where the pace of progress was zero.

These include the elementary-education net enrollment rate; ratio of girls to boys in secondary education; ratio of girls to boys in elementary- education cohort survival rate; ratio of girls to boys in secondary-education cohort survival rate; ratio of girls to boys in elementary-completion rate; and ratio of girls to boys in secondary-education completion rate.

The Neda also said that another indicator that has a low probability of being achieved is the ratio of girls to boys in elementary education, with a pace of progress of 0.02 percent.

Meanwhile, indicators that have a medium probability of being achieved or those that may not also be met by 2015 include the indicator on the proportion of the population living below the poverty threshold, with a pace of progress of 0.82 percent.

Other indicators include the prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age, with a pace of progress of 0.63 percent; elementary-education completion rate, 0.54 percent; and number of population aged 15 to 24 with HIV.

The Neda is currently finalizing the fourth report of the Philippines on the MDGs. The fourth report will be launched next week, a few weeks ahead of the scheduled address of President Aquino on the country’s MDG progress to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the UN Millennium Summit, when 189 heads of state agreed on the MDGs, which include halving extreme poverty, providing universal primary education, improving gender equity and halting the spread of HIV/AIDS, all by the target date of 2015. –Cai U. Ordinario / Reporter, Businessmirror