New versus old poverty reports

THE NEW SWS report on poverty in June 2010. Last Monday, through BusinessWorld as usual, Social Weather Stations reported Self-Rated Poverty (SRP) at 50 percent of households, and Self-Rated Food Poverty (SRFP) at 38 percent of households, as of its Second Quarter Survey of June 25-28, 2010 (nationwide, 1,200 households, 3 percent sampling error margin).

(Although the field dates were at the end of the Arroyo period, the new data point was mislabeled inadvertently in the report’s tables and charts as under the new Aquino administration. I only noticed the fluke on Thursday, my first day in the office after an official travel and a slight flu. It has been corrected on the website.)

In the previous SWS survey of March 2010, both SRP (then at 43 percent, tying the record low of March 1987) and SRFP (at 31 percent) had been at record lows, for the entire SRP data series that started in 1983 (now a total of 91 surveys, quarterly since 1992) and the SRFP data series that started in 1988 (a total of 51 surveys, quarterly since 2000).

The jumps in the two measures by 7 points each (note: 1 point is equal to over 180,000 households) underscore the great volatility of poverty, over as short a period as one quarter. The extent of poverty does not keep still over time. It does not move smoothly. It does not move at the same rate in all areas of the country. Poverty is quite dynamic, and should not be taken for granted.

Granting that poverty can move either upward or downward over one quarter, what is the long-term trend, if any? I would say that poverty has trended roughly downward, especially in the past 15 years. The problem is that the general decline did not start early enough, and has not been fast enough, to meet the ambitions of, in particular, the so-called Millennium Development Goals (MDG).

The MDG target regarding poverty is to halve its proportion—not its absolute number, which is more difficult—over the period 1990 to 2015, i.e., if the proportion of the poor, however defined, is set equal to 100 in 1990, the target is to reach 50 by 2015. This implies reducing the initial proportion by an average of 2 percent per year over 25 years.

In the 13 SWS poverty surveys during the Cory Aquino period, there was no clear trend in poverty. The SRP percentage started at 66 in May 1986 and closed at 68 in April 1992, but there were also three times when it was as high as 70 to 72. It was always at least 60, except for the benign year 1987, when it was 43 in March, and a relatively low 51 in October.

In the MDG starting year 1990, SRP was at 66 in April and 70 in November, or an average of 68. This implies a Self-Rated Poverty target of 34 percent to meet the poverty MDG by 2015. (The Self-Rated Food Poverty percentage, surveyed once in 1990, was at 57, thus putting its 2015 MDG at 28.5.)

In 25 SWS poverty surveys in FVR’s time, SRP was in the upper 50s nine times, in the 60s fifteen times, and hit 70 once. From 1995 onwards it settled down to the low 60s/high 50s.

In 12 SWS poverty surveys of Erap’s time, SRP had a relatively narrow range of 54 to 65. It floated in the mid-50s in his last year, ending at 56.

In Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s time there were 13 SWS poverty surveys up to March 2004, and 26 of them from June 2004 onward. In the first segment, SRP fluctuated between 53 and 66 percent. In the second segment it was in the 50s seventeen times and in the 40s nine times, ending at 50 last June.

Can the implied 2015 MDG of 34 be met five years from now? To do that, the SRP percentage must first return to the 40s consistently, as soon as possible. The difficult part will be to enter the realm of the 30s, which it has never reached before. I would consider the poverty MDG reached when SRP no longer goes above 40.

The new official MDG progress report still cites poverty in 2006. This week’s governmental progress report on the MDG is simply the new administration’s manifestation of commitment to continuing the war on poverty. It is a new package that does not contain any new data, since it limits itself to the official statistics on poverty, which are lackadaisically generated only once every three years.

The last reference year was 2006, which is already four years ago. There are only eight data points in the entire official poverty data series, from 1985 to 2006. They show poverty declining steadily up to 2003, but increasing from 2003 to 2006.

Going by past experience, the next official poverty figure, based on government income and expenditure surveys of 2009 (i.e., under Gloria Arroyo’s watch), may be expected in preliminary form in October 2010, and in final form in early 2011, by which time it will be close to two years old.

After 2009, the next years for official poverty measurement are scheduled to be 2012 (for preliminary reporting to President Aquino in late 2013) and 2015 (for preliminary reporting in late 2016, to P-Noy’s successor already). Thus the present statistical policy provides a six-year-term President with one and only one opportunity to see a poverty report applicable to his own administration, and still have time remaining to modify government policies and programs accordingly.

For the forthcoming official 2009 poverty estimate to have some hope for achieving the MDG, it should not only be below poverty in 2006 but also below, or at least no higher than, poverty in 2003. If the official 2003-2009 trend proves not better than flat, the government should immediately make plans to measure poverty in 2011, and at least annually thereafter. –Mahar Mangahas, Philippine Daily Inquirer

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Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.