Economic value of optimism

HERE is good news.

The 3rd Quarter 2010 Social Weather Survey (SWS), conducted from September 24to 27, found that 38 percent of Filipino adults expect their personal quality of life to improve in the next 12 months. SWS calls these segment of the population the “Optimists.”

Only 6 percent of our population—the “Pessimists”—expect their personal quality of life to get worse.

Deducting the Pessimists from the Optimists, the survey yields a Net High Personal Optimism score of +32.

This score is lower than the “record high” +36 in the survey conducted in the second quarter of 2010. But +32 and +36 are scores both belonging in
SWS’ “very high” category (scores ranging from +30 and above). Scores are termed “high” in the +20 to +29 bracket—since they are higher than what is normally expected, or are above the category containing the median and mode, ranging from +10 to +19, and are termed “fair.”

In the Net Personal Optimism surveys of the past five quarters beginning September 2009, the result has been more than +20.

This means Net Personal Optimism has been high even during the final months of the administration of President Gloria Arroyo.

But in the second quarter of 2010—when the survey was conducted after the May elections and it was known that Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino was going to be the next president—and in the third quarter, after President Aquino took office, the scores went up to “very high.”

Why?

There have been no dramatic changes in income growth. No great achievements since President Benigno Aquino 3rd assumed office in July. In fact there have been a number of fiascos that Aquino critics have used to make the public pessimistic about the future of our country.

So why then should a larger number of the Filipino people feel that their lives are about to become better?

The only answer must be the President’s continuing and undiminished popularity and the people’s continuing confidence in him as the chairman of the board of Philippines Inc.

There’s more good news.

On the state of the Philippine economy, 39 percent of the population were optimistic that it would get better and only 9 percent were pessimistic.

Before June 2010, surveys always yielded a Net Economic Optimism score of double-digit negatives. This awful pessimism was seen in 30 out of 46 SWS quarterly surveys since 1998.

Again, hope in President Aquino must be the only reason for this optimism in the future surge of our economy.

Geographical results

Personal Optimism reached record-high in the Visayas and Mindanao. Over the past two quarters, Net Personal Optimism stayed high/very high in all areas and classes, with new record-highs set in the Visayas and Mindanao.

In the Visayas, Net Personal Optimism rose from +27 in June to a record-high +33 in September. It has been at double-digit positives since June 2009.
In Mindanao, it rose from +26 to record-high +32. It ranged from +11 to +27 from September 2008 to March 2010.

In Metro Manila, Net Personal Optimism stayed very high at +44 in June and +41 in September. It has been at double-digit positives since December 2008 and highest compared to other areas since September 2009.

Results by economic class

In class ABC, Net Personal Optimism was at very high +48 in the previous quarter and at a high +24 in September. It ranged from +23 to +32 from September 2009 to March 2010.

It stayed at very high level in class D or the masa, from +36 in the previous quarter to +34 in September. It ranged from high +21 to +26 from September 2009 to March 2010.

Even among the poor, the Filipinos in economic class E, Net Personal Optimism was at a very high +32 in June and a high +26 in September 2010. It has been at double-digit positives since June 2009. –Manila Times