Exports growth not sustainable–economists

THE country’s merchandise exports posted an all-time high with a growth of 46.1 percent in September 2010, according to the preliminary results of the Merchandise Export Performance released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday.

The NSO said export earnings reached $5.314 billion in September 2010, which is considered a first for the country. The NSO said before September 2010, export earnings only hovered within the $4-billion level.

Compared with previous month, exports posted an 11.7-percent growth from $4.759 billion posted in August 2010.

Total export earnings in the January-to-September 2010 period posted a 38.5-percent increase to $38.298 billion from the $27.649 billion in the same nine-month period in 2009.

While this is impressive, Dr. Ernesto Pernia, University of the Philippines School of Economics professor, said this level of export may not be sustainable for the Philippines, especially if the Philippine peso further appreciates against the US dollar.

Some economists forecast that the peso will continue to appreciate against the dollar to as low as P40 to the dollar.

The First Metro Investment Corp. and University of Asia and the Pacific Capital Market Research expect that the peso will reach P43.40 to the dollar by January 2011.

Pernia added that the export earnings for September were also recorded at a time before currencies really began appreciating against the dollar, which could affect the growth of the country’s export earnings.

“That’s before the sharp peso rise [against the dollar]. [It is] not sustainable at that rate if the peso rises further,” Pernia said.

The NSO said total export receipts from the top 10 exports reached $4.233 billion, or 79.7 percent of the total exports.

The top 10 exports were led by electronic products, which accounted for 65.5 percent of the total export revenue for September.

Shipments of electronic products in September amounted to $3.478 billion, or a growth of 54.6 percent from the $2.250 billion posted in September 2009. Electronic products also increased month-on-month by 16.4 percent from $2.989 billion in August 2010.

Components/devices or semiconductors comprised 54.6 percent of the total exports of electronic products. Shipments of semiconductors amounted to $2.904 billion, or an annual growth of 80.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the NSO said total export earnings from the country’s top 10 markets in September amounted to $4.569 billion, or 86.0 percent of the total. The top three export markets for September 2010 were Singapore, Japan, including Okinawa, and China.

Exports to Singapore accounted for 24.2 percent of the total exports for September 2010 with $1.283 billion. This represented a 478.6-percent increase from the $221.83 million a year ago

The NSO said shipments to Japan in September 2010 amounted to $765.85 million, or 14.4 percent share, of the total exports. The amount increased by 25.2 percent from $611.70 million reported a year earlier.

Data showed that exports to China represented 12.6 percent of the total exports with shipments amounting to $669.74 million. Compared with its September 2009 level, the amount increased by 296.1 percent from $169.08 million.

The Philippines’ total exports in September 2010 to East Asia accounted for 41.6 percent of the county’s total exports. It amounted to $2.211 billion, or an increase of 45.7 percent from its September 2009 level of $1.518 billion.

Exports to Asean member-countries accounted for 31 percent of the total exports in September 2010 with $1.645 billion. This represented an annual positive growth of 213.8 percent from $524.07 million recorded in September 2009.

September 2010 total exports to European Union with a 10.5-percent contribution to total exports were valued at $557.33 million. It, however, declined by 27 percent from $763.04 million registered in September2009. –Cai U. Ordinario / Reporter, Businessmirror