Farm sector contracts

THE Philippine farm output is likely to end the year in negative territory mainly because of the severe damage brought by the prolonged effects of the El Niño phenomenon.

In the first nine months, the farm sector contracted 2.6-percent.

The lack of rains delayed palay, corn and sugar production, stunting the agricultural sector’s growth in the first and second quarters. The Cagayan Valley and Western Visayas regions bore the brunt of the prolonged dry spell’s effects.

But in the third quarter, heavy rains came—courtesy of ‘Typhoon Juan’—destroying standing crops of palay and corn, with the damage hitting P11.53 billion.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) Bureau of Agricultural Statistics had conceded that full-year rice and corn output would be lower than in 2009, despite a relatively low-base figure a year ago.

According to official estimates, the agricultural sector must post an expansion of more than 5 percent in the fourth quarter for it to achieve flat growth for the full year.

Earlier, the DA forecast that the sector will contract by at least 0.5 percent this year, ruling out full recovery.

Better 2011 production

But the agency said that prospects for next year would be brighter as it expects first-quarter production for both rice and corn to be higher because of cropping was moved, thus extending the harvest season.

Dr. Rolando Dy, Center for Food and Agri Business – University of Asia and the Pacific (U&AP) executive director, agreed with the government, adding that the farm sector will grow by 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent as La Niña—which has peaked in November—would gradually ease by March to May.

Despite the rains, the palay, corn and banana sub-sectors are seen to enjoy some growth, offsetting the possible losses in sugarcane and coconut.

Dy said that weak to moderate weather conditions brought by La Niña will encourage planting season for palay as rainfall will be available mostly in the first quarter.

Coconut production next year will still bear the effects of this year’s prolonged dry spell, Dy said, adding that output may still fall by -1.5 percent to -2.5 percent—but better than the -6.5 percent to -7.5 percent contraction this year.

Sugar prices will remain high as domestic prices are tied to the fortunes of the world market, the economist said.

The livestock sub-sector is expected to recover in 2011 though growth will be minimal at 1 percent to 2 percent, a turnaround from the previous year’s slight contraction. The poultry sub-sector will also see a slight uptick with growth projected at 2 percent to 3 percent.

Output in commercial and municipal fishing will also expand next year despite the expected abnormal weather. Aquaculture will remain as the driver of fisheries growth, Dy said.

Mitigation of climate change effects

To curb the negative effects of climate change, the DA said that there is a need to build capacities in risk assessment and disaster management by using available technologies such as remote sensing and climate check.

The government also must pour greater investments in equipment and infrastructure such as irrigation that taps rain water (big reservoir types and small water impounding projects), all weather roads, farm mechanization, warehouses, storage and other post-harvest facilities.

The agency also plans to invest in technology development and extension such as the development of drought-resistant or submergence-tolerant varieties. It will also provide loans and weather-based insurance to farmers for their production and land improvement needs.

The DA is also pushing for the strengthening and modernization of data collection so it could track and conduct quick and effective national surveys. –JAMES KONSTANTIN GALVEZ REPORTER, Manila Times