Politics: Why 2011 could get tough

HERE’S a no-brainer: With nine out of ten Filipinos expecting things to get better next year, even as economic growth is tipped to be slower, will satisfaction with the government go up or down?

Another brain-twister: Surveys always put prices at the top of public concerns, so how will the P2 increase in subsidized rice prices, plus higher commuter train fares and expressway tolls, affect the President’s approval ratings?

One more: When Mar Roxas, Neric Acosta and other Liberal Party election losers take Cabinet posts and other top agency positions next year, will there be peace and harmony between Roxas’s Balay group and the PNoy loyalist Samar faction? No prizes for guessing whose side Vice President Jejomar Binay would take.

These are some political questions floating around as 2011 nears, although what most Filipinos and the rest of the world really want to know about the Philippines next year is whether Manny Pacquiao would finally get to fight Floyd Mayweather.

Still, politicians, like death and taxes, will be with us, so their ups and downs, ins and outs, and the machinations in between would be the stuff of barber shop and beer house banter, as well as the lofty art of column writing.

No better place to start the crystal ball gazing than the biggest house in San Miguel, Manila, postal code 1000. So far, President Benigno Aquino 3rd has sustained his high approval ratings, helped by the growing economy he inherited, his honest, simple-living image and strong personal rapport with the people, and supportive coverage by top media.

Will PNoy’s ratings continue to soar, or will they follow the trajectory of every elected president since Philippine surveys began, including his own mother? It already dropped in October to 79 percent from the 88 percent in July, his first month in office.

One big challenge, ironically, are the high expectations for 2011: more than 90 percent of Filipinos expect better things, according to Pulse Asia’s recent survey. It doesn’t take a statistics whiz to see disappointment ahead for many optimists, especially with economic growth and public works spending both due to dip.

Deflated hopes may run highest in Mindanao, where energy officials expect eight-hour or longer brownouts to resume next year, due to the fall in power generation when monsoon rains cease in the first half of the year. So far there have been no clear measures to address the looming electricity gap, which will also affect Metro Manila. Thus, the country will see aircon-less summer weeks and idled day-rate workers.

The Palace hopes that businesses will take up the slack in infrastructure spending through the public-private partnership projects, with some P100 billion proposed to begin next year—if there are takers.
Massive property development is another major job-creator, though it bears watching if the boom may already be creating a glut. The other construction damper would be rising prices of building materials.

Besides the economy, the other potential source of unhappy survey respondents is law and order. The resumption of peace efforts with both the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF) would hopefully preserve the seven-year-old ceasefire with the former, and reduce clashes with the latter as well as the CPP-NPA’s kidnapping, assassination and extortion activities. But neither is a given.

Rebel groups often use negotiations as a ploy to regroup, rebuild and even mount limited offensives supposedly in response to alleged ceasefire violations by the government. Such actions improve the insurgents’ negotiating position and provide battlefield advantages should peace talks break down and conflict resumes. And the incentive to violate ceasefire rules increases as peace talks deteriorate.

For the MILF, the key to progress at the negotiating table would be how receptive major Mindanao sectors are to their desire for greater autonomy and wider coverage for so-called Bangsamoro areas. It didn’t fly the last time it was pushed in 2007 via a memorandum declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.

Hopefully, PNoy can charm Mindanaoans toward compromise, although in the elections, he lost to Joseph Estrada in the southern provinces of Mindanao—the main rebel areas. The November kerfuffle between his Peace Process Adviser Teresita Deles and Muslim lawmakers didn’t help. Nor do reported differences between the Palace and Malaysia over the choice of mediator.

The NPA is even more problematic. Apart from Christmas breaks, the CPP-NPA has for years refused the government’s condition to have a ceasefire before peace negotiations resume. The President’s State of the Nation Address in July reiterated the past administration’s policy of no ceasefire, no talks.

Now the Palace seems to have withdrawn the ceasefire demand just to have talks. PNoy also ordered the withdrawal of charges against the “Morong 43” suspected NPA members. And Malacañang’s criticism was muted when the NPA killed 10 soldiers and a 9-year-old boy in a Samar ambush right after news of the Christmas ceasefire.

Will such concessions make the CPP-NPA-NDF negotiate in earnest, or embolden them to rebuild from a decade of setbacks, which eradicated all but a few of their 13 fronts and decimated their armed fighters to a fifth of their peak? Perhaps even more crucial, will government forces lose drive in containing the insurgency with their Commander in Chief letting the rebels have their way?

Moving to the Cabinet, the impending entry of Liberal Party election losers is expected to boost the clout of vice presidential candidate and former Sen. Mar Roxas’s Balay group, seen by many as a rival to both the pro-PNoy Samar faction and Vice President Binay’s camp.

The travails of Local Government Secretary Jesse Robredo, a Roxas ally, and Aquino’s shooting buddy Undersecretary Rico Puno underscore the reported factionalism. Where Roxas ends up next year could damp tensions—or spur more intramurals, maybe even an expose or two to cut down rivals cliques. And expect Binay and other political entities to maneuver for gains in the coming Palace power plays.

With all that excitement, what do we need Pacquaio-Mayweather for? –RICARDO SALUDO, Manila Times

Ricardo Saludo heads the Center for Strategy, Enterprise and Intelligence ( ric.saludo@censeisolutions.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ). He was assistant managing editor of Asiaweek before joining the Presidential Management Staff in 2001.