What’s up, what’s down in 2010

AS this year draws to a close and the next beckons in firecrackers and booze, let us look back on the momentous events of 2010 and see if our nation moved forward, never in a straight line, but hopefully advancing somehow. No doubt the biggest development, if not accomplishment, of 2010 for Filipinos is the elections, which affirmed our democracy and elevated a new leadership on its promise of eradicating corruption in order to end poverty.

Whether President Benigno Aquino 3rd delivers on his promise of dramatically slashing the two age-old banes of our three-score-old republic, his election by computerized canvass is achievement enough for our nation where, as they say, candidates lose not the vote, but the count. But for once in our history, there are no grave doubts about the validity of Noynoy Aquino’s 42-percent landslide victory. Kudos to the Commission on Elections, the pollwatchers, and the electorate.

Corollary to the elections was the smooth transfer of power from President Gloria Arroyo to President Aquino. Opposition and media critics relentlessly stirred fears and speculation about no elections, failed elections, martial law, and other imagined schemes to keep Arroyo in power, and the press headlined the scare talk. But in the end, it was the Constitution, not the speculation, that prevailed, completing Arroyo’s final legacy of computerized elections and constitutional transfer of power.

The resulting affirmation of our democratic processes laid the foundation for political stability alongside the sound macroeconomic fundamentals, cemented in recent years by Arroyo’s fiscal reforms, which cut deficit and debt levels as a percentage of GDP. These two factors addressed longstanding concerns of investors, leaving the Aquino government to tackle two other major worries: corruption and infrastructure.

With the tentative global recovery under way, the economy predictably surged in 2010, also helped by election campaign spending and record remittances from overseas Filipinos. The economic rebound has also boosted tax collections, even as the new government curbed spending. Thus, fears of a budget deficit blowout have subsided, and the Aquino administration looks set to keep the shortfall well below the target ceiling. This augurs well for the economy in 2011.

While his role in the economic resurgence is limited, President Aquino can claim credit for restoring trust and confidence in the presidency and much of the government, helped by support from media and Congress. The public warmed to PNoy’s war on abuse, privilege and largesse among government officials, typified by his “walang wangwang” policy and his removal of lavish perks in state corporations. People were also impressed by his claims of stopping anomalous deals upon taking office, even without presenting any details or charges. And he succeeded in removing many Arroyo appointees despite a setback in one of a few petitions filed against the dismissal order.

Aquino’s high-profile test of wills with the Supreme Court began during the election campaign with his avowed refusal to accept the High Court’s ruling exempting the post of Chief Justice from the election ban on midnight appointments. The tussle between Executive and Judiciary reached a new high with the Supreme Court decision declaring unconstitutional Executive Order No. 1 creating the Truth Commission to investigate the Arroyo administration.

PNoy has blamed the High Court for blocking his reform agenda, but critics including Sen. Joker Arroyo, a loyal friend of the Aquino clan, have countered that it is legal incompetence in the Palace that is the problem. Moreover, in past regimes, probing and prosecuting previous administrations did little to stanch graft in the incumbents. What’s needed are sweeping reforms and resolute political will to crack down on those in office now, which Aquino has yet to do or even announce. Indeed, he has shown a reluctance to investigate people close to him who are accused of graft.

Rather than a partisan obstacle to reform, the Supreme Court’s independent rulings in the face of presidential pressures affirms another foundation of our democracy: the separation of powers and its checks and balances among co-equal branches of government. Over the past decade, both Congress and the courts asserted their powers and prerogatives vis-a-vis the Palace. But since July, the legislature has been largely subservient to Malacañang, leaving the High Court as the main check against Executive abuse.

There is no better demonstration of the submissive Congress than its rubber-stamping of the 2011 budget. In past administrations with longer experience in tailoring budgets to legislative preferences, the House and the Senate still made big changes in the draft General Appropriations Bill. But the Aquino budget, submitted after barely two months in office, passed untouched. This was not because it was exactly what Congress wanted, but more likely due to fears of Palace reprisal after the suspension of some P8 billion in pork barrel in the midst of budget deliberations, as well as the marching orders to House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte.

Thus, in 2010, Philippine democracy took two steps forward with credible elections and a smooth transfer of power, and one step back with the emasculation of Congress and the Executive’s assault on the courts, not only through tough talk over EOs, but also open meddling in the “Morong 43” and Magdalo mutiny trials. Even the House has joined in pressuring the High Court, with the impeachment complaint against one associate justice. Still, seven out of every 10 Filipinos are satisfied with how our democracy is working, according to a recent survey, so don’t expect the President and his House allies to change their ways soon.

Looking at major sectors outside the government, the biggest development may well be the reversal in fortunes between the Catholic Church and the communist insurgency. Once courted by the Arroyo administration, which held fast to the Vatican’s anti-contraceptive stance, the Church saw Malacañang’s new occupant, whom many bishops and priests supported, going head to head with the bishops over birth control. Humbled in the battle over the Reproductive Health Bill, the hierarchy will find it even harder to get its way with the Palace on other issues.

By contrast, the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF), whose four-decade-old rebellion had lost much ground against the Arroyo administration, now finds itself getting concession after concession from the Aquino regime. In the hopes of advancing peace talks, PNoy has moved for the release of the Morong 43 suspected NPA rebels, and scrapped the Bantay Laya counter-insurgency strategy which has extinguished most of the 13 rebel fronts nationwide.
Now, the rebels are flexing their muscles, testing the government’s mettle with ambuscades, and even giving press conferences to project resurgence.

Thus, in just half a year, the men of God are in the Palace doghouse, and the godless communists are in Malacañang’s good graces. Congress has traded legislative inquisitions for a rubber stamp, and the once revered Supreme Court is attacked by the Palace as a bulwark against reform. The people now cheer the President, and Philippine democracy, once threatened by rebels of the right and the left, has set both of them free in the hopes making peace with all.

What a difference a year makes. –RICARDO SALUDO, Manila Times

Ricardo Saludo heads the Center for Strategy, Enterprise and Intelligence ( ric.saludo@censeisolutions.com