Phl 13th most likely to suffer food crisis

The world has gone topsy-turvy for former Ombudsman Simeon Marcelo and Chief Special Prosecutor Dennis Villa-Ignacio. For sounding the alarm against the rushed-hushed plea bargain of plundering military comptroller Gen. Carlos Garcia, they are now the ones in trouble. Their successors have charged them before the Sandiganbayan with indirect contempt. If found guilty, they can be imprisoned up to six months and fined up to P30,000.

Hearing is set for today, at the anti-graft court’s Second Division. This same division had granted Garcia P60,000-bail a week before last Christmas, instead of keeping him jailed for P303-million plunder.

Malacañang is opposing Garcia’s guilty plea to the lesser offenses of bribery and abetting money laundering. The Senate and House of Reps are investigating why the present Ombudsman and Chief Special Prosecutor allowed such legal maneuver in secrecy stealth and speed. The executive and legislative actions stemmed from Marcelo and Villa-Ignacio’s complaints of irregularities in the plea deal.

Foremost of the two’s objections is that the Armed Forces was never consulted as the aggrieved party in Garcia’s plundering. Too, that the evidence of guilt was strong enough to warrant conviction, as stated in a 2-1 vote of the Second Division, and a 3-2 vote of a special one in Jan. 2010.

The charge against them hinges on their initial claim that Garcia had filed a demurrer to drop the plunder rap without having to present any defense. Marcelo later admitted having erred, since what Garcia filed and the court decided was a plea for bail in the plunder case. He thought it was a demurrer because his successor had kept the plea bargain secret since Feb. 2010, and sprung it only last Dec. 16.

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The Philippines ranks 13th most vulnerable country to surging food prices. This was reported as far back as Sept. 2010 by Asia’s largest investment bank, Nomura. The government appears helpless because of economic strains and policy gaps. It has not stockpiled grains, increased farm yields, or curbed the worst contributors to costly food: runaway fuel and population rates.

The Nomura Food Vulnerability Index comprises 80 poor and rich countries. From their 2008 GDP per capita, share of food in household expense, and ratio of net food export to GDP, Nomura identifies those suffering most from costly food.

The 25 worst off are: Bangladesh, Morocco, Algeria, Nigeria, Lebanon, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Hong Kong, Azerbaijan, Angola, Romania, Philippines, Kenya, Pakistan, Libya, Dominican Rep., Tunisia, Bulgaria, Ukraine, India, China, Latvia, Vietnam, Venezuela.

The Philippines is 13th, with $1,847 per capita, 45.6 percent of home budget going to food, and -1 percent of GDP in net food exports.

Vietnam, a Southeast Asian neighbor, fares a wee bit better only because it is a net exporter of food, mainly rice. Its per capita is $1,051 and food consists of 50.7 percent of home consumption.

By contrast, Malaysia is 17th least vulnerable to food price spikes. Per capita is $8,209, with food accounting for 37.1 percent of household expenses, and net food exports at 2.9 percent of GDP.

Thailand and Singapore are considered median. Thailand’s per capita is $4,043, with 39 percent of family expenses going to food, and net export at 2.7 percent of GDP. Singapore’s per capita is $37,597, with 21.9 percent of home budgets for food, and -1 percent of GDP as net export.

International experts have been warning that ever dearer food will worsen hunger in Asia, which has the most people living on less than $2 a day. The Economist reports that the world is undergoing its second food crisis since 2003-2008. Global food prices today are highest since 1984.

Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the US financial crisis, foresees worse for the world in 2011-2012 — food crisis. Among the culprits are fuel rate hikes and climate change. Droughts in Russia and Argentina, floods in Canada and Pakistan, and frost then water shortage in China have destroyed grains harvests. Crude oil has shot beyond $100 per barrel. Countries with huge hordes of foreign exchange, like China, will import more foods, edging out cash-strapped ones, like the Philippines.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization says that Asia’s rapid population growth is also choking the food supply. Adding to the load are: conversion of food farms into urban centers and biofuel plants, and rising preference for high-calorie diets. –Jarius Bondoc (The Philippine Star)

E-mail: jariusbondoc@workmail.com