MANILA, Philippines – Seven in 10 Filipinos, or 71 percent, believe that a peace agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) would be reached, a latest survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) revealed.
The SWS poll, taken from Sept. 4 to 7, also found a little over half of Filipinos, or 52 percent of respondents, saying that a peace accord is possible before President Aquino’s term ends in 2016.
Fifty-six percent of the 1,200 respondents said the meeting between Aquino and MILF officials led by chairman Al Haj Murad in Japan last August would help, the SWS said.
Results of the SWS survey, which were published in BusinessWorld yesterday, showed that public eagerness for a peace agreement is strongest in Mindanao, with 24 percent expecting a deal to happen in 2011 to 2013, compared to 12 percent in Metro Manila, 10 percent in balance Luzon and six percent in the Visayas.
Combined with those holding a 2014-2016 timeframe, optimism was still highest in Mindanao at 55 percent followed by the Visayas, 51 percent; and 50 percent each in balance Luzon and Metro Manila, 50 percent.
On the other hand, 23 percent in Metro Manila, 21 percent in both balance Luzon and Mindanao, and 15 percent in the Visayas expect an agreement to happen in the next administration, or 2016-2022.
Those who think that a deal will never be reached comprised 30 percent in the Visayas, 24 percent in balance Luzon, 22 percent in Metro Manila and 20 percent in Mindanao.
Of the overall 71 percent “hopeful” of an agreement, 26 percent said they were “very hopeful” while 45 percent described their sentiment as “somewhat hopeful.”
Only 29 percent were pessimistic, including 15 percent who were “somewhat not hopeful” and 14 percent who were “not hopeful at all.”
Respondents from Mindanao were the most optimistic, with a majority of 85 percent (44 percent “very hopeful” and 41 percent “somewhat hopeful”).
Majorities in other areas were also optimistic: 72 percent in Metro Manila, 67 percent in balance Luzon and 64 percent in the Visayas.
Pessimists comprised 36 percent in the Visayas, 33 percent in balance Luzon, 28 percent in Metro Manila and 15 percent in Mindanao.
SWS said majorities across the board also agreed that Aquino and Murad’s meeting in Japan last Aug. 4 would contribute to the forging of a peace deal.
They comprised 61 percent in Metro Manila, 56 percent both in balance Luzon and the Visayas, and 51 percent in Mindanao.
Those who neither agreed nor disagreed about the meeting was highest in Mindanao at 35 percent, followed by the Visayas, 26 percent; balance Luzon, 25 percent; and Metro Manila, 20 percent.
Those who disagreed comprised 18 percent in the Visayas, 17 percent in Metro Manila, 16 percent in balance Luzon, and 13 percent in Mindanao.
Frustration
Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Teresita Deles said the SWS survey results reflect that the Filipino people are already tired of armed conflict.
Deles welcomed the SWS survey, which she said reflects the high optimism of Filipinos that a peace agreement with the MILF would finally be reached.
“The high optimism regarding a peace agreement between the government and the MILF is very much welcome, especially during this time when the negotiations are facing major challenges,” Deles said.
Deles said the survey encourages the government to be more focused in its efforts to ink a lasting peace with MILF.
“This drives us to stay even more focused and work harder for peace. We hope that the other party, with the support of all stakeholders, will continue to work with us to finally bring the peace aspirations of the Filipino to reality,” she said.
Deles said the survey results also showed that Filipinos appreciated the sincerity of the Aquino administration to ink peace with the MILF.
“We believe that this reflects a public that is tired of armed conflict and puts much confidence on the sincerity of the administration to usher in peace in Mindanao,” Deles said.
MILF leaders, however, are voicing growing frustration that efforts to end one of Asia’s longest and deadliest insurgencies have hit a diplomatic brick wall.
Murad expressed hope after an historic meeting with Aquino in August that peace talks were on a “fast track” and a final deal was within sight.
But negotiations stalled soon after when the government offered its roadmap for peace, a document Murad called an “exercise in futility” that could lead to reigniting a conflict that has claimed an estimated 150,000 lives.
“There is an impression that it is even heaven and earth,” Murad told reporters recently at the MILF’s Camp Darapanan headquarters in the rural southern Philippines, in reference to the two sides’ positions.
Murad insisted there would be no more direct talks between two sides’ peace panels until the government produced a more realistic and workable blueprint.
The government, however, has rejected the MILF’s demand.
The stalemate is the latest setback to 10 years of talks that some observers say are inevitably doomed because the national government will not be able to meet the MILF’s core requirement of an autonomous sub-state in the south.
There are roughly four million Muslims in Mindanao, an area they see as their ancestral homeland.
Mindanao is among the most fertile and resource-rich in the Philippines, but it is also one of the country’s poorest and undeveloped, a legacy of the conflict that began four decades ago.
Muslims, known as Bangsamoro, are now a minority in Mindanao but insist they should be allowed to largely govern the region themselves and control its potential riches.
“We feel we are colonized,” Murad said.
The MILF, the largest Muslim rebel group with about 12,000 soldiers, has for the past decade sought to negotiate a settlement rather than achieve its aims through armed insurgency, which peaked in the 1970s when an all-out war raged.
However, negotiations have gone virtually nowhere since 2008 when the Supreme Court blocked a peace deal that would have opened the door to an autonomous Muslim sub-state, ruling it was “unconstitutional.”
Aquino had promised to reinvigorate the peace process and invested much personal capital by meeting Murad in August.
Their encounter in Japan was the first ever face-to-face talks between a sitting president and MILF leader.
However, the optimism within the MILF faded after the government put forward its peace plan a few weeks later with the explicit condition that it will only work within the Constitution, effectively ruling out a sub-state.
At this stage, Aquino is unwilling to invest further political capital by lobbying Congress to change the Constitution for what many among the majority population would oppose, security analyst Rommel Banlaoi said.
“Right now there is a huge gap in misunderstanding,” Banlaoi, head of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism, said after he met with Murad.
“The Philippine government insists on using the constitutional framework to address the Bangsamoro problem. But the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is insisting that what they want is a sub-state.”
The government is instead offering the MILF “enhanced autonomy” as part of a self-coined “three-for-one” plan that also involves economic development and government recognition of the Bangsamoros’ historical ties to the land.
Chief government negotiator Marvic Leonen maintained in recent weeks that the two sides in fact have many positions in common and a peace deal is achievable before Aquino’s term ends in 2016.
“There are many sources for optimism,” Leonen said, although he conceded there was still no date yet for when the two sides would resume negotiations.
Murad, who is in his early 60s, and other aging rebel leaders say they are desperate to sign a peace deal before they have to give way to a younger generation that has the potential to be far more militant.
“We need to put in place a viable political solution that will entice the next generation to toe the line of the peace process,” Murad said.
“The younger generation can be more inclined to violence because most were born during the war.” –-Helen Flores (The Philippine Star) with Jose Rodel Clapano
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