The DBS Group has lowered its 2011 growth forecast for the Philippines to 4.6 percent from 4.8 percent, mainly due to the downtrend in export earnings amid dampened global demand for electronics.
In a new research note, the financial services group noted that merchandise exports for July and August were down by 1.7 percent and 15.1 percent year on year, respectively, “and the figure for September may be worse.”
“Even with a sequential [month-on-month] improvement in outbound shipments through the rest of this year, overall nominal exports growth is going to be anemic and may even slip into negative territory,” DBS said.
The group said that with shipment orders for North America-bound semiconductors still dipping in September, there are limited prospects for a meaningful uptick in electronics exports.
“The bright spot in the economy lies with domestic demand,” DBS said. “Despite the current crisis, remittances have remained relatively resilient, growing by 6.3 percent in the first seven months of the year.”
“On balance, domestic demand growth is not sufficient to offset the external drag for this year,” DBS added.
DBS paints a better picture for 2012 exports, keeping its projection at 5.2 percent to reflect a moderate recovery in the global economy.
“Higher investment through the delayed public-private partnership infrastructure projects should also help bolster growth next year,” DBS said.
Further, the group said that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is likely to maintain its overnight borrowing rate at 4.5 percent during its policy meeting today.
DBS reiterated that monetary policymakers will focus on economic concerns while the inflation outlook remains benign despite near-term price pressures arising from typhoon damage on crops.
“We maintain our forecast that inflation will reach 4.9 percent in 2011 and 4.7 percent in 2012,” the group said.
DBS said that with inflation unlikely to pose much of a problem until late 2012, any form of monetary tightening will be pushed back. “We no longer [predict] any rate hikes through to the third quarter of 2012.” –Ronnel W. Domingo, Philippine Daily Inquirer
September 18 –
International Equal Pay Day
“Increase wages now,
more than other cost items.
For widespread, practical equality!”
Invoke Article 33 of the ILO Constitution
against the military junta in Myanmar
to carry out the recommendations of the 2021 ILO Commission of Inquiry
against serious violations of protocols of
Forced Labour and Freedom of Association.
Accept the National Unity Government (NUG)
of Myanmar. Reject Military!
#WearMask #WashHands
#Report Corruption #SearchPosts #TakePicturesVideos
September –
5 Sept – Intl Day of Charity
7 Sept – Intl Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies
8 Sept – International Literacy Day
12 Sept – United Nations Day for South-South Cooperation
15 Sept – International Day of Democracy
16 Sept – International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer
17 Sept – World Patient Safety Day
18 Sept – International Equal Pay Day
21 Sept – International Day of Peace
26 Sept – International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
27 Sept – World Tourism Day
28 Sept – International Day for Universal Access to Information
29 Sept – International Day of Awareness of Food Loss and Waste
30 Sept – World Maritime Day
Monthly Observances:
Health, Safety and Sanitation Month
National Clean-up Month
Civil Service Month
National Peace Consciousness Month
Social Security Month
Rule of Law Month
National Teachers’ Month (Sept 5-Oct 4)
Weekly Observances:
Sept 17 – 23:
World Clean and Green Week
Week 2: Education Week
Week 4: Medicine Week
Last Week: National Family Week
Daily Observances:
Third Saturday:
International Coastal Clean-up Day
Third Monday: World Health Day
Last Friday: National Maritime Day
Sept 8: National Literacy Day
Sept 15: Philippine Medicine Day
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