Exports may still grow, but below 10% target for 2011

MANILA, Philippines – Merchandise exports are still expected to grow this year although at a much lower rate of only three percent from the original target of 10 percent , the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) reported yesterday.

Export Trade Promotion director Senen M. Perlada told reporters that export growth will be flat to three percent despite a huge decline in latest government data.

Meanwhile, the target for services is a 16-percent growth. “I think they are hitting higher about 20 percent to 22 percent. We will have to work out the math but we will not have a negative export performance. No way. For merchandise flat to about three percent,” he stressed.

Perlada said they remain optimistic that there will be no decline because they suspect the Semiconductors and Electronics Industry of the Philippines Inc. (SEIPI) is “sandbagging.” He noted that the announced 18-percent decline in electronics exports is overstated and that the situation is not that bad and that there will be no decline in exports by yearend.

Perlada said the Export Development Council (EDC) will be meeting on Friday. For merchandise exports, Perlada said the worst case scenario is zero growth. In spite of this, he said the services, which makes up 20 percent of the entire exports can carry some of the slack.

He likewise said that the electronics sector might have surprises up their sleeve. “ I am talking to others and it’s not that bad,” he said. Perlada also pointed out that for last year exports posted the highest growth in August. This means that the big decline in this year’s figures is compounded by a big base. He said exports grew 43 percent August 2010.

For next year, he said they maintain their target of doubling up the exports. However, he said the EDC must focus on what they have to do to achieve the growth targets.” Obviously for 2011 we will not meet the target but we are still consistent with our strategy to move up the value chain and develop non electronics exports.”

“We don’t think the decline this year will have an effect on the medium term targets because eventually it will catch up because there are a lot of prospects,” Perlada said.

He noted that Germany is already okay but he said what is scary is the US. Fortunately, he said there has been some improvements in the latest US figures. –Ma. Elisa P. Osorio (The Philippine Star)