Private economists issue mixed inflation forecasts for 2011, 2012

Published by rudy Date posted on November 8, 2011

PRIVATE sector economists have mixed inflation trends for 2011 and next year, but are still within the target ranges of the government for both years, a survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas showed.

Based on the results of the central bank’s survey of private economists for September, inflation is expected to be within the 3 to 5 percent target range for both 2011 and 2012.

The mean inflation forecast for 2011 eased to 4.5 percent in the third quarter compared with 4.7 percent in the previous quarter. The mean inflation forecast for 2012 remained at 4.3 percent.

“Analysts noted that the recent easing of global commodity prices as well as expectations of slower global economic growth due to the euro zone’s continuing debt crisis, coupled with the weak US economy, would dampen inflationary pressures going forward,” BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said.

Based on the probability distribution on the forecasts provided by 10 out of the 13 respondents, there was a 73.3 percent chance that average inflation for 2011 could settle within the 4.1 to 5 percent range, or still within the central bank’s target range for the year, Guinigundo said.

Respondent banks include Asia ING, ATR KimEng, Banco de Oro, Bank of China, Bank of Commerce, Deutsche Bank, Forecastweb, HSBC, Metrobank, Multinational Investment Bancorporation, Nomura, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., and UBS.

Nomura gave the highest inflation forecast for the fourth quarter at 5.10, as well as for the full year at 4.90 percent.

Guinigundo said the private sector’s’ sentiment was consistent with the business expectation survey for the third quarter, as it showed a smaller majority of respondents expecting inflation to move up from a diffusion index of 38.7 percent to 32.1 percent as well as in the fourth quarter from 34.8 percent to 29.2 percent.

“This reflects, in part, the moderating global commodity prices,” Guinigundo said.

Likewise, results of the consumer expectation survey for Q3 2011 showed that respondents expect inflation to drop to 8.5 percent in the next 12 months from 10.4 percent in the second quarter.

Respondents expect lower inflation for transportation (from 17.6 percent to 14.0 percent); fuel (from 10.9 percent to 7.4 percent); education (from 11.5 percent to 8.6 percent); house rent (from 8.2 percent to 5.7 percent); and fruits and vegetables (from 15.2 percent to 12.8 percent).

Using the diffusion index, the survey showed a smaller majority of respondents expecting increases in the prices of goods and services over the next 12 months from 56.9 percent in the second quarter to 48.7 percent in the third quarter.

“Compared to the previous quarter, the downward adjustment in the forecast path in Q3 2011 may be attributed to the lower-than-projected inflation outturns from June to September, easing of global oil prices, lower domestic output expansion and slower domestic liquidity growth,” Guinigundo said.

He said the slower money demand growth reflected the impact of recent policy actions by the BSP, including the two-percentage points increase in reserve requirements, to curb potential inflation pressures.

Consumer prices rose to a four-month high in October to 5.2 percent from September’s 4.8 percent based on 2006 prices, because of higher food, housing and utilities’ prices as a result of the typhoons that struck the country.

Guinigundo said the peak of monthly movements in consumer prices might have been reached last month. –Lailany P. Gomez Reporter, Manila Times

July 2025

Nutrition Month
“Give us much more than P50 increase
for proper nutrition!”

Invoke Article 33 of the ILO Constitution
against the military junta in Myanmar
to carry out the 2021 ILO Commission of Inquiry recommendations
against serious violations of
Forced Labour and Freedom of Association protocols.

Accept National Unity Government (NUG)
of Myanmar.  Reject Military!

#WearMask #WashHands #Distancing #TakePicturesVideosturesVideos

Time to support & empower survivors. Time to spark a global conversation. Time for #GenerationEquality to #orangetheworld!

July


3 July – International Day of Cooperatives
3 Ju
ly – International Plastic Bag Free Day
 
5 July –
World Youth Skills Day 
7 July – Global Forgiveness Day
11 July – World Population Day 
17 July – World Day for
International Justice
28 July – World Nature Conservation Day
30 July – World Day against Trafficking in Persons 


Monthly Observances:

Schools Safety Month

Nutrition Month
National Disaster Consciousness Month

Weekly Observances:

Week 2: Cultural Communities Week
Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise
Development Week
Week 3: National Science and
Technology Week
National Disability Prevention and
Rehabilitation Week
July 1-7:
National Culture Consciousness Week
July 13-19:
Philippines Business Week
Week ending last Saturday of July:
Arbor Week

 

Daily Observances:

First Saturday of July:
International Cooperative Day
in the Philippines

Categories

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.