Weather extremes to devastate Philippines

LEGAZPI CITY: Ten years from now, the Philippines’ climate shall have gone from bad to worse which imperil food security, livelihood, infrastructures, peoples’ lives and limbs as the adverse impact of global warming has reached the tipping point according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical and Services Administration (PAGASA) officials here.

The Philippines, ranked third as the most vulnerable and climate hotspot for disaster with no resources and lack of capability to cope, will be facing extreme frequency of rainfall and weather disturbances beyond 2020 according to Rosalina G. de Guzman, officer-in-charge, climatology and agrometeorology division, CAD during the “Trainor’s Training on Climate Variability/Change for DOST-PAGASA Regional Services Division for Southern Luzon held at La Roca Veranda Suites and Restaurant this city.

Bicol facing the Pacific Ocean is the most vulnerable region in the country as the increase of temperatures go higher than Metro Manila’s which means widespread rainfall, flooding and typhoons will be pernicious here ten years from now, Pagasa officials said.

Guzman said that climate trends and projection in the Philippines in the next 30 to 40 years would be influenced by past emissions principally due to the long and lifetime effect of green house gas emissions.

The climate in the country by 2020 and 2050 is based on the study on present or current climate changes in the Philippine climate in terms of temperature, rainfall and extreme events including tropical cyclone occurrence, she said.

“The next 30 to 40 years will be greatly influenced by the past greenhouse gas emissions already emitted in the atmosphere which might stays for a hundred years or more. All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the relatively warmer summer months. The annual mean temperatures (average of maximum and minimum temperatures) in all areas in the country are expected to rise by 0.9 degrees Celsius to 1.1 degrees Celsius in 2020 and by 1.8 degrees Celsius to 2.2 degrees Celsius in 2050,” De Guzman said.

In terms of seasonal rainfall change, generally there is a substantial spatial difference in the projected changes in rainfall in 2020 and 2050 in most parts of the country with reduction in rainfall in most provinces during the summer season making the usually dry season drier while rainfall increases are likely in most areas of Luzon and Visayas during the southwest monsoon, making these seasons still wetter and thus with likelihood of both droughts and floods in these areas.

The northeast monsoon season rainfall is projected to increase particularly for areas characterized by Type 11 (Luzon area which include Bicol Region) climate with potential for more flooding.

During the southwest monsoon season, larger increases in rainfall is expected in Luzon from 0.9 percent to 63 percent and Visayas with 2 percent to 22 percent but generally decreasing trends in most the of the provinces of Mindanao in 2050.

However projections for extreme events in 2020 and 2050 show that hot temperatures will continue to become more frequent. The number of dry days (days with less than 2.5mm of rain) will increase in all parts of the country and heavy daily rainfall (exceeding 300mm) events will also continue to increase in number in Luzon and Visayas.

In Southeast Asia which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, among others, temperature increases have been observed although magnitude varies from one country to another.

During the last 60 years, the country’s climate exhibited increasing temperatures as the maximum and minimum temperatures were seen to have increased by 0.36 degrees Celsius and 1.0 degrees Celsius respectively.

Extreme rainfall events or heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall is projected to increase in Luzon and Visayas only but number of dry days is expected to increase in all parts of the country in 2020 and 2050, the study said.

The climate in the next 30 to 40 years is greatly influenced by past greenhouse gas emissions. The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere with the exception of methane (with a lifetime of only 13 years) will mean that it will take at least 30 to 40 years to the atmosphere to stabilize even if mitigation measures are put in place.

Senator Loren Legarda in a statement sent to The Manila Times also said that the country has consistently gone up in global rankings on climate vulnerability.

“In 2009, we were the number 12 most at risk from cyclones, floods, earthquakes and landslides based on the Mortality Risk Index by the United Nations International Strategy on Disaster Reduction (UNISDR); in 2010, we were the sixth most climate-vulnerable nation according to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index; and for this year, we are considered the third most vulnerable by the United Nations University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security,” she said.

“Our ascent in the global rankings is too fast and very significant. We cannot overlook these figures. To wait for us to become the most vulnerable to disasters is simply inexcusable. This only means that we have yet to fully utilize the mechanisms and strategies already available to us. Making our Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction and Management laws work is not only a legal requirement, but more so a moral imperative and a social responsibility,” she added.

The Senate according to Legarda has been focused on discussing the government’s budget for 2012. “One of the main concerns I have raised during these deliberations is the allocation for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation-related activities in each agency of government. The government needs to substantially lessen its fiscal vulnerability to disasters. Our budget must be used as a tool to build the country’s resilience to disasters and climate change. If we allocate 0.5% of our gross domestic product or GDP on CCA and DRR activities until the year 2020, it will avoid damages worth 4 percent of GDP in 2100,” she said.

Apart from the budget, the DRR and CCA initiatives of each department of government must be linked with one another. We need convergence among the various agencies of government to effectively build a disaster-resilient nation, Legarda said.

But this herculean task should not be carried alone by the national government. The government and the people must work together. This message is embodied in the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risks, Redefining Development, a report of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. The success of reducing and managing disaster impacts rests with policy coherence in the national government, competent and accountable local governments, and an openness to work in partnership with civil society, the former media worker turned legislator said.

“While the call for more resilient and safer communities resounds all over the world, following the escalating number of lives lost and growing breadth of devastation, the steps we have taken, in the grand scale of the problem, are, unfortunately, too small and too slow,” Legarda lamented. –RHAYDZ B. BARCIA CORRESPONDENT, Manila Times