NSCB sees better RP economy in 2012

The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) expects a positive outlook for the Philippine economy this year as its composite leading economic index (LEI) continued to improve.

The NSCB said the LEI in the first quarter continued its upward course after it weakened in the second quarter last year.

The LEI serves as a basis for short-term forecasting of macroeconomic activity, as it incorporates the behavior of indicators that consistently move upward or downward before the actual expansion or contraction of the economy.

For the first quarter, the LEI posted 0.238 from a revised 0.158 in the fourth quarter of last year.

“The latest LEI computations show the index in firmer positive territory auguring well for the domestic economy to start off the year of the dragon,” the NSCB said.

The government expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow between five to six percent this year.

Of the 11 indicators that make up the composite LEI, eight contributed positively.

The NSCB said the positive contributors in the LEI include the visitor arrivals, stock price index, hotel occupancy rate, wholesale price index, total merchandise imports, electric energy consumption, consumer price index and number of new businesses.

The combined share of positive contributors for this quarter rose to 82.1 percent from 65.5 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, bolstering the healthier prospects for the economy.

On the other hand, the negative contributors, beginning with the largest negative contributor, were terms of trade index, money supply and foreign exchange rate.

The negative contributors accounted for 17.9 percent of total contribution. PNA