BEST GROWTH IN ASIA: September exports jump 22.8%

Merchandise exports in September jumped by 22.8 percent from the previous year, making it the highest monthly export growth in almost two years.

Data from the National Statistics Office showed that the September export growth, a reversal from the 27 percent drop during the same month last year, was the highest since December 2010’s 26.5 percent growth.

Export earnings surged to $4.784 billion in September from the $3.897 billion recorded a year ago.

For the first three quarters of 2012, Philippine exports expanded by 7.2 percent to $40.067 billion from the $37.376 billion registered a year ago.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee expects exports growth for the full-year at 10 percent.

With the September surge, Bureau of Export Trade Promotion (BETP) director Senen M. Perlada said the agency is optimistic to accomplish its target to double total exports to $100 billion by 2016.

The National Economic and Development Authority said the Philippines ranks as the strongest performer in Asia for the month of September.

NEDA compared the increase in Philippine exports to other countries in the region which also registered growth in outward shipments, such as Hong Kong (15.8 percent), Vietnam (15.6 percent), Taiwan (10.4 percent), China (9.9 percent), and Thailand (0.2 percent).

Trade Undersecretary Cristino Panlilio noted that the country’s export growth remained robust “ despite significant threat posed by the crisis in the Euro area and lethargic state of the US economy”.

Emmanuel Esguerra, Deputy Director-General of NEDA’s National Development Office for Planning and Policy, said the growth reflects the moderate improvement in global economic activity as industrial production and business confidence recover”.

Esguerra said there was improved demand for the country’s manufactured exports as global industrial production grow. He added that new orders prove further signs of expansion following persistent declines.

The growth in exports in September was brought about by the increase in value of shipments of tuna, metal components, fresh bananas, woodcrafts and furniture, ignition wiring set and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircrafts and ships, petroleum products, coconut oil and electronic products.

The total export revenues from PROC, Hong Kong and Taiwan accounted for 22.4 percent of the Philippines’ total merchandise exports. Exports to the ASEAN and the European Union covered 15.3 percent and 93.3 percent, respectively.

The bulk of the shipments to the Philippines’ top five overseas markets were composed semiconductors, miscellaneous manufactures and wood manufactures.

“With this progressive expansion in our export performance, we will continue our export promotion efforts to monitor developments in global trade with the end in view of finding new markets and seeking niche opportunities in conventional markets to achieve our export target,” Panlilio said.

In the region, Japan posted the steepest decline in exports as it fell by 11.8 percent in September, followed by Indonesia (-9.4 percent), Singapore (-4.8 percent), and the Republic of Korea (-2 percent).

“The Philippines is only one of four East and Southeast Asian countries that posted positive growths in the first nine months of 2012, along with Vietnam (18.3 percent), China (7.4 percent), and Hong Kong (1.8 percent),” said Esguerra.

Cid Terosa, economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said that clearly, the hike in exports was due to the need for more shipments abroad to meet greater seasonal demand.

On a monthly basis, exports expanded by 26 percent from the $3.798 billion posted in August 2012.

Similarly, the total volume of outward shipments in September grew on an annual and monthly basis by 47.3 percent and 152.6 percent, respectively.

Among the top 10 export products, tuna posted the highest annual growth as it jumped by 128.7 percent to $47.99 million compared to the year ago level of $21 million.

Other export commodities in the top 10 which showed improvement from the previous year are metal components (116.6 percent), fresh bananas (87.8 percent), woodcrafts and furniture (80.4 percent), ignition wiring set and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircrafts, and ships (49.9 percent), petroleum products (7.4 percent), coconut oil (2 percent), and electronic products (1.1 percent).

“The nearly flat performance of electronics shipments was due to the drag coming from electronic data processing (EDP) units amid renewed strengths in other electronics sub-segments such as telecommunication, which was projected to surpass computers as one of the leading market drivers,” Esguerra said.

Esguerra added that the observed weakness in overseas sales of EDP units in September 2012 (-26.6 percent) was due to consumers’ greater preference for lower-end desktop PCs and notebook computers over higher-performance models on account of a still sluggish global economy.

While most of the export products in the top 10 posted increases over the previous year, cathodes and section of cathodes of refined copper; and articles of apparel and clothing accessories, posted declines of 43.6 percent and 39.7 percent, respectively.

Among the top 10 export products, tuna posted the highest annual growth as it jumped by 128.7 percent to $47.99 million compared to the year ago level of $21 million.

Other export commodities in the top 10 which showed improvement from the previous year are metal components (116.6 percent), fresh bananas (87.8 percent), woodcrafts and furniture (80.4 percent), ignition wiring set and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircrafts, and ships (49.9 percent), petroleum products (7.4 percent), coconut oil (2 percent), and electronic products (1.1 percent).

“The nearly flat performance of electronics shipments was due to the drag coming from electronic data processing (EDP) units amid renewed strengths in other electronics sub-segments such as telecommunication, which was projected to surpass computers as one of the leading market drivers,” Esguerra said.

Esguerra added that the observed weakness in overseas sales of EDP units in September 2012 (-26.6 percent) was due to consumers’ greater preference for lower-end desktop PCs and notebook computers over higher-performance models on account of a still sluggish global economy.

While most of the export products in the top 10 posted increases over the previous year, cathodes and section of cathodes of refined copper; and articles of apparel and clothing accessories, posted declines of 43.6 percent and 39.7 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile , Malacañang yesterday said the Philippine export sector’s performance last September was “promising” and showed a healthy demand despite the global economic downturn.

Benjamin Diokno meantime said that the export surge in September is not sustainable. Most of it is base effect. Exports plunged by 27% in September last year, so the 22% growth in September this year does not even bring it back to where it was last year. Electronics exports grew marginally. But considering how deep it fell during the post-crisis years, I doubt whether a full recovery is in sight. Sustaining exports growth during the last quarter of 2012 is doubtful given that the world economy has grown slower and riskier. Japan is back in recession. And our relations with China continue to be cool which means Philippine exports to China will continue to be at risk.

In order to meet the official exports growth target of 10%, total exports has to grow by 18.4% in the last quarter of 2012. That’s highly improbable.” –ANGELA CELIS and IRMA ISIP, Businessworld