Analysts say peso could hit P46 per dollar

THE PESO could weaken to as much as P46 to a dollar, New York-based consultancy GlobalSource Partners said, but will likely end the year at around P43-44.

“[T]o the extent that continuing portfolio rebalancing by both residents and non-residents leads to capital outflows, there may be additional pressure on the peso. We would not be surprised if it tests the P46/$ level in the weeks ahead,” GlobalSource’s local partners Romeo L. Bernardo and Marie-Christine Tang said in a market brief issued yesterday.

A reversal, however, could come “in time” and “while reverting to a P40/$ exchange rate is highly unlikely, we think there is a more than even chance of the peso settling at around P43-P44/$ by yearend,” they noted.

The peso has been trading in P45 per dollar territory since Wednesday last week. It closed yesterday at P45.20 per dollar, up five centavos from Monday.

The GlobalSource economists said the economic managers were likely supportive of a weaker peso, seeing this as part of a “region-wide response to continuing speculation about the likely strength of the US economic recovery and its impact on the Fed’s taper.”

On the question as to why the peso is depreciating more than Asian currencies, they said: “It appears the answer lies in the comparatively low domestic yields on peso instruments versus other Asian fixed income and by extension, a narrower differential vs. US treasury yields.”

The expected reversal, they said, will be due to an “improving outlook on current account earnings, particularly electronic exports, BPO (business process outsourcing) services and remittances, due to the prospect of improved growth in advanced countries especially the US…”

The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee, which sets the government’s macroeconomic targets, forecasts the peso to settle within P41-44 to the dollar by yearend. –Businessworld