Who’s responsible?

THANK GMA: Talking of DAP as a stimulus for development, there are many analyses saying that the country’s remarkable growth is not so much the fruits of Aquino’s governance as a result of the adroit economic management by the previous Arroyo administration.

Somehow, the same message sounds a bit more credible when a foreign authority says it. Here is one from Financial Times’ David Pilling allaying anxiety over possible adverse effects of the closing in 2016 of President Aquino’s term.

The analyst said Mr. Aquino is not exactly the key to the stability of the 6-plus percent economic gains of the Philippines. (Many of the major infrastructure being rushed or inaugurated by him are actually big-ticket projects carried over from the previous regime.)

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OFW INFLOW: Pilling, a British expert on the Asian economy, said, “In truth, some of the macro-economic improvements have been the fruit of policy changes outside his (Aquino’s) administration, particularly at the central bank (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas).

He added: “Although his predecessor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, was deeply unpopular and accused of overseeing a corrupt administration, much of the improvement in economic fundamentals can be dated to her government.”

Pilling noted that Aquino economic policies did not primarily drive the macroeconomic improvements marked by the debt and investment upgrades. But Malacañang makes a big thing of the upgrades although unable to show trickle-down benefits to the masses.

He cited overseas Filipino workers’ remittances and strong domestic demand that insulate the country from downturns of external economies. Filipinos abroad send about $25 billion yearly, a big boost to the purchasing power of their families.

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SWEET SPOT: Pilling said the Philippines is entering what he calls a “demographic sweet spot” driven by the large number of young people and their expected productivity in the labor force. Compared to the older economies, the median age of Filipinos is much lower.

The STAR story by Camille Diola that took off Friday from Pilling’s analysis said that while projections indicate that the economy will continue to grow beyond this administration — some even expect faster than China — foreign observers are alarmed by the high poverty rate plaguing the nation.

The Asian Development Bank said that the challenge is to translate “solid economic growth into poverty reduction by generating more and better jobs.” In its 2014 outlook report, the ADB said: “Reflecting the lack of good jobs, the poverty rate was 25.2 percent in 2012, only a small improvement on 26.3 percent in 2009. –Federico D. Pascual Jr. (The Philippine Star)