PH expected to outperform Asean peers until 2015 — Maybank

The Philippine economy is expected to outperform its peers in the region this year and next, Maybank Kim Eng said in a report Monday.

“The Philippines is expected to outperform its group with growth of 6.2 percent [for 2014] and 6.3 percent [2015],” Maybank said.

The Malaysia bank said its forecasts were in line with those made by multilateral organizations such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

The latest growth forecasts for the Philippines from the World Bank were 6.4 percent in 2014 and 6.7 percent in 2015 while the ADB put it at 6.2 percent and 6.4 percent, for the respective years.

“With 1H14 [first-half] GDP growth at 6 percent, the consensus among the three organizations is 2H14 [second-half] will be better. We concur as recent issues holding back growth in 1H14 are being resolved,” Maybank said.

It said inflation pressures were easing, with the September figure of 4.4 percent from 4.9 percent both in July and August.

“With oil prices continuing to decline and imports of basic food commodities such as rice coming in, the trend is expected to be sustained,” Maybank said.

It said the port congestion, which businessmen blamed for higher prices in the previous months, had eased with the indefinite suspension of the truck ban in Manila.

“Vigilance by the private sector keeps the issue on the top of the minds of government officials and we believe this will help prevent a recurrence of the problem,” the bank said.

Maybank said one of the Philippines’ edge over its peers in the region was that the country’s growth was demand-driven. It said the country’s banking system was healthy, its population was younger and overall leverage was low among households and corporates. Debt ratios of the government are also declining, it said. –Julito G. Rada, Manila Standard Today